Electricity and telecommunication cables and gas pipelines have been damaged in the Baltic Sea. The most recent case is the cutting of five cables in the Gulf of Finland on Christmas Day. A tanker belonging to the Russian shadow fleet is suspected of sabotage.
We called a top maritime safety expert in Copenhagen and asked how threats related to shipping have changed and what may still lie ahead.
Director of maritime safety research, professor Christian Bueger The University of Copenhagen has recently investigated security threats to the seas in his report. Here are five big challenges.
1. Self-driving ships are becoming more common, and they can end up in the hands of terrorists
Armed autonomous ships are able to strike targets with the push of a button. If they are equipped with artificial intelligence, they can identify objects independently and much faster than when guided by a human.
The decisive moment in naval warfare was when Ukraine managed to use in September 2022 self-guided drone boats to a major attack on the Russian fleet at Sevastopol in the Crimea.
According to Bueger, self-driving ships are one of the most unpredictable challenges for maritime safety in the future.
The ships can either operate completely independently with the help of artificial intelligence or they can be remotely controlled.
According to Bueger, a big security risk is that autonomous ships are vulnerable to cyber attacks.
Attackers can seize control of the ship and use it to carry out, for example, a terrorist attack.
– Lacks in cyber security can make these ships cheap and risk-free tools for terrorists and criminals, says Bueger.
They can also be used to remotely control drug and weapon shipments and to spy.
According to Bueger, autonomous ships can also improve maritime safety. They can patrol large sea areas and react quickly to crisis situations.
– In the next ten years, the control system will become more and more strict with the help of technology, and it will be more difficult for illegal operators to hide and carry out sabotage, says Bueger.
In warfare, self-guided ships are the future. Among other things, the United States plans to acquire more unmanned vessels that would operate both on the surface and under the water.
2. Shadow fleets: a threat that is difficult to control
Shadow fleets used by Russia and other countries threaten the Baltic Sea. They can be used in international conflicts and hybrid warfare, such as cutting submarine cables. They can also cause environmental damage.
The most recent case is the cable damage in the Baltic Sea that happened on Christmas Day. The Eagle S tanker belonging to the Russian shadow fleet is suspected of sabotage. The vessel is still in the possession of the Finnish authorities.
According to Bueger, the activity of shadow fleets is exceptionally close in the Baltic Sea. They can also be used for espionage.
Swedish Navy reported in Aprilthat several ships of the Russian shadow fleet are equipped with communication equipment that ordinary merchant ships do not use. Sweden believes that these ships can also be used for espionage.
There is also British media specialized in maritime transport from the Eagle S ship Lloyd’s Listin, according to a source, spying equipment intended for listening to NATO radio traffic was found. KRP has not confirmed the information.
According to Bueger, there is a big environmental risk associated with the shadow fleet.
However, Bueger does not believe that Russia would intentionally cause an oil accident, for example, because the Russian economy revolves around oil.
– If the main routes of the Baltic Sea had to be closed due to the accident, it would also damage the Russian economy significantly, says Bueger.
According to Bueger, the number of shadow fleets is alarmingly large.
There are estimated to be up to 1,400 vessels belonging to shadow fleets sailing the world’s seas.
3. Undersea cables have become targets of sabotage
The more we depend on cables and pipelines in the seas, the more they become targets of attack and sabotage.
Even 99% of the world’s data transmission runs through undersea cables. They are easy targets for sabotage.
Cables are easy to break, but considerably more difficult to repair.
– The more cable there is in shallow waters, the easier it is to damage it, says Bueger.
Cables are protected by an armor layer only closer to the shore, where they are often buried under the seabed.
Major international cables is about 600.
According to Bueger, one way to prevent sabotage is to repair the cables quickly. It reduces the temptation of sabotage.
According to Bueger, the latest sabotage showed that the reaction of the Baltic Sea countries has clearly accelerated.
– This was not the case two years ago, when we had the Nord Stream sabotage. Nobody knew how to work together or what to do, says Bueger.
According to Bueger, the countries of the Baltic Sea must further increase control and speed up remediation.
4. Attacks by armed groups against merchant ships
The proliferation of cheap weapons such as drones and new technology have increased attacks on merchant ships.
More than 80 percent of world trade goes by sea. Yemen’s rebel group the Houthis have attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea, and Russia has attacked Ukrainian grain transport ships in the Black Sea.
Many ship owners have changed the routes of their ships to go around the African continent. It has increased oil and freight prices.
Poor countries in particular depend on food and energy transported by sea. Attacks on shipping have contributed to increased food prices.
5. Cyber attacks at sea
According to the report, the number of cyber attacks at sea has increased dramatically in recent years. Such attacks include data collection, GPS jamming and hitting navigation systems.
– The marine world is digitized, and it is increasingly dependent on internet or satellite navigation. It creates completely new opportunities to attack shipping, says Bueger.
According to Bueger, all cyber risks in other sectors also apply to shipping.
– We have seen signal scams in both the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea. In addition, cyberattacks can be used to blackmail, spy or disrupt, Bueger lists.
Despite the threat images, artificial intelligence also benefits maritime safety.
According to Bueger, artificial intelligence can use previous information to identify areas of piracy, for example, and advise ships to avoid dangerous routes.