Russian troops located near the Finnish border are concentrating on the war in Ukraine.
This is evident from recent satellite images that has acquired of Russian garrisons and bases near Finland.
For Finland, the situation is stable. Russia has no ambitions to improve its equipment against Finland, but only aims to send more soldiers and equipment to the war in Ukraine.
The reason is Russia’s massive losses of men and equipment in the war.
In this story, we show the most important changes that have taken place in three Russian bases since last spring.
Last fall, the largest construction project of the Russian Armed Forces in the nearby areas was the construction of yet another maintenance hall at the huge equipment depot located in Petrozavodsk.
Based on the satellite image, the size of the hall is about 50 by 25 meters, or about 1,250 square meters. Driven closely together, for example, around 50 armored vehicles could fit there.
The hall was built between September and October. You can see the change when you slide the image:
The new maintenance hall is the third similar new building at the depot. The previous hall was built by the Russian Armed Forces in May.
In the hall, the armed forces can repair and maintain armored vehicles, other vehicles and cannons, which are then loaded onto the tracks for transport.
– The delivery of material to Ukraine will probably continue from there, says the military expert who analyzed the satellite images for Marko Eklund.
Major evp Eklund has worked in Finnish military intelligence and monitored the Russian armed forces for more than 20 years.
In the future, however, the Petroskoi depot may also be important for Finland.
Last spring, Russia re-established the Soviet-era military district of Leningrad behind the border with Finland.
The purpose of the military circle is to prepare for Russia’s imagined NATO threat from the direction of the Nordic countries.
It would need a lot of equipment, which is still in abundance in Petrozavodsk.
– However, no modern combat equipment for the 2030s will be produced there, says Eklund.
According to him, the weapons and vehicles in the depot mainly come from the Soviet Union decades ago.
In addition to the equipment, the Leningrad military district would need many more soldiers, i.e. combat troops and their supporting armed forces, such as anti-aircraft, pioneer and electronic warfare brigades.
– If they don’t come, the military district of Leningrad will remain a political paper tiger, Eklund estimates.
A permanent tent camp was erected on the Karelian peninsula for military exercises
The Russian troops are preparing for the war in Ukraine most obviously also in Kaukjärvi, or Kamenka in Russian.
The strongest unit of the Russian armed forces in the direction of Finland is located there. The large garrison and training area is used by the 138th Motorized Infantry Brigade.
During the last winter, an exceptionally large tent village for a couple of thousand soldiers went up in the Kamenka training area. In the most recent satellite image, the number of tents has continued to increase.
Satellite images reveal the increase in the number of tents in summer and autumn:
– Based on that, Kamenka is the most significant training center in the region that prepares troops for war, Eklund estimates.
Based on the satellite images, it is about the continuous training of troops outside the brigade, not just the closing exercises of the training period that are repeated every six months.
Eklund: In Luga, more military equipment is visible than ever before
Based on satellite images, large-scale training for the war in Ukraine is currently also given in Ylä-Lauka, or in Russian, in the Luga region, says Eklund.
Luga is located south of St. Petersburg, about 120 kilometers east of Estonia.
Luga has an artillery brigade, an infantry brigade and a missile brigade equipped with Iskander missiles. A tent camp and an exceptionally large number of vehicles can be seen in the barracks area of the infantry brigade.
The amount of equipment shown in the photo may indicate that the body of one or even two combat divisions sent to Ukraine has been assembled in the garrison, Eklund estimates.
– The operation of the infantry brigade has clearly been activated. There have been more vehicles in the autumn pictures than ever before, says Eklund.
It has been possible to monitor the garrison from satellite images since the turn of the 21st century.
In the same way, troops and equipment were collected to be sent to Ukraine in the Alakurt garrison, as reported by in July 2022.
According to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the infantry brigade stationed in Luga fought last summer In the city of Vovchansk near the city of Kharkiv. According to Ukraine, it suffered heavy losses.
Eklund: Finns can sleep peacefully at night
According to Eklund, Russia’s eyes are now closely focused on Ukraine. It is in no way able to improve its military equipment near Finland, although there is a desire to do so.
– There can be no concrete threat from Russia, because the troops are elsewhere and the focus of the entire operation is elsewhere, says Eklund.
So can Finns sleep peacefully on behalf of the Russian armed forces in 2025?
– That’s what I would say. The events of the war in Ukraine are the thing that is most worth or needs to be excited about, but nothing revolutionary can happen in the nearby areas in a year or two, says Eklund.
However, Russia can do many other types of interference, such as hybrid influence, says Eklund.