The new sanctions will hit Russia’s energy exports and cut the government’s income, estimates a Finnish researcher.
The United States has imposed new, strict economic sanctions against Russia.
The decision is the last, which will soon give way Joe Biden has time to do as president. The season continues until January 20.
The Russian oil giants Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas are on the banned list. Their inclusion in the list will reduce Russia’s oil revenues, estimates the research manager of the Bank of Finland Ilkka Korhonen.
– They are big companies, in that sense this is a significant sanction.
The expected effect of the sanctions is also indicated by the fact that in the past the United States has not dared to include oil giants on the sanctions list. The US’s concern has been that the supply of oil on the world market would shrink so significantly that the shortage would raise the price of oil and thereby accelerate inflation.
Now the United States has brought inflation close to the target level of two percent. At the same time, the supply of oil is increasing significantly this year.
– The situation has changed, so the time was ripe to change our strategy, an official of the Biden administration who spoke anonymously justified the sanctions to the Financial Times.
Oil prices rose immediately after the US announcement on Friday.
Researcher: Second-hand sanctions are decisive
New sanctions are particularly effective if they include, so to speak, second-hand sanctions.
In this case, all companies that in the future do business with sanctioned entities will be subject to the same sanctions – also outside the United States.
In practice, it completely shuts the company out of the dollar market.
– After that, such a company can no longer operate on the international market. Everyone wants to avoid this risk to the last, says Bank of Finland’s Iikka Korhonen.
Russia has still managed to sell a lot of its oil to, for example, India. This is exactly where the sanctions hit.
– If, for example, an Indian oil refinery has previously bought oil from Gazprom Neft, then after this it is more likely that there will be no more deals. Or at least the price must be lower.
Sanctions also for the shadow fleet
In addition to the oil giants, the new sanctions apply to 183 ships of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet.
Until now, the EU and Great Britain have imposed sanctions on the shadow fleet. Now the United States is approaching the EU sanctions line with shadow navy sanctions. It complicates Russian oil transport.
– Here, too, the threat of secondary sanctions is what brings power, says Korhonen.