Terese Cristiansson on the first month since the change of power • “Everyone hopes, longs and fears”
If the wait can be frantic, those are the words that best describe the situation in Syria right now. Everyone hopes, longs and fears. Millions of Syrians want to know what the future of Syria will look like. But changing the direction of a country that has been in the authoritarian grip of one family for over 40 years, has been rocked by a bloody civil war for more than 13 years and where 13 million of the population are refugees takes time. Considerably longer than a single month.
Happened a lot
Still, a lot has happened. The interim government, with HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa as the de facto leader, has set many balls in motion for the country’s economy, institutions and political process. Several international leaders have visited Syria and some have opened their embassies in Damascus. The biggest – albeit unsteady – success is that there have not yet been any major acts of revenge between different groups.
The military future has been the focus of the past weeks. The interim government has made it clear that all militias must be disbanded and placed under a national command. The most difficult dialogue is the one with the Kurds in northeastern Syria, who since the battle against the Islamic State have the support of the United States and the West. So far, there are no ready statements from the Kurds if they can imagine sharing weapons with HTS. If they do not agree soon, the risk of international interference increases. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has recently threatened a Turkish offensive if the Kurds do not give in to the demands from Damascus. Add in Israel’s bombings and Syria would once again become the scene of proxy wars.
Promised National Congress
The political process is less clear. A national congress has been promised where thousands of people will be invited to discuss both the upcoming interim government and the new constitution that needs to be written. But in anticipation of the congress, the focus has been on some of the ministers chosen by Ahmed al-Sharaa for the interim government. Not least on the Minister of Justice who can be seen on a video two women are executed in the street outside Idlib in 2015.
The former Islamist Al-Sharaa has so far managed to balance on his new polished more secular line where he tries to appease the West as well as secular Syrians and more conservative forces. But for important posts, he has after all chosen trusted Islamists. It is enough to fuel speculation that he is taking steps towards an Islamist rule in Syria.
It is too early to say what al-Sharaa and HTS are planning. They themselves have set March 1 as a deadline for the appointment of the interim government. It should include different ethnic groups, gender, religion and political opinions. Otherwise, a frantic wait will turn into a frenzied rage.