This will be one of her first measures if she enters the Elysée: to take down the European flags from the Republican pediments. The symbol is strong. And proves that, behind a soothing speech, Marine Le Pen is still just as dangerous for France. With it, our country would not only see its ideals flouted, but it would find itself marginalized – and therefore weakened – in Europe and in the rest of the world.
Our neighbours, among whom this scenario is blowing a wind of panic, were not mistaken. “If Marine Le Pen comes to power, it will be the end of the European Union, predicts Enrico Letta, former Italian Prime Minister. With her, the European engine, which worked well with Macron, would stop.” But it is undoubtedly across the Rhine that the concern is the strongest, the populist leader making no secret of her intention to put an end to the Franco-German couple. “France would become another country – and Europe another continent”, summed up Der Spiegel.
The risk of a “domino effect”
Hungary and Poland, with their radical right-wing leaders Viktor Orban and Mateusz Morawiecki, are already disrupting the functioning of Europe. But their attacks aim above all to challenge the rule of law. “Marine Le Pen would block decisions in all areas, including financial, economic, monetary; this would have much greater effects, throughout the continent”, warns Michel Duclos, former ambassador and special adviser to the Institut Montaigne. The risk would be that the changeover of France, and the psychological shock that would ensue, would lead to a “domino effect”.
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Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
Admittedly, the RN candidate no longer speaks, as in 2017, of leaving the EU – a prospect that is too anxiety-provoking for the French – but of replacing it with a “Europe of nations”. A wobbly concept that would lead to a virtual “Frexit” that does not say its name and to a real weakening of Europe. “When she proposes to re-establish control of goods at the borders, that means import restrictions between member states, it’s against European treaties and law. The same goes for her reform of the Schengen area, which would introduce procedures for the passage of people”, points out Christine Verger, vice-president of the Jacques Delors Institute. Not to mention his desire to modify the French Constitution by referendum to establish the primacy of national law over European law, “not only in the field of immigration, but also in all matters”.
On NATO, a worrying position
Equally worrying, the populist candidate wants to “radically reconsider” our country’s strategic alliances. Ignoring the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and the atrocious crimes committed by the latter, she writes black on white in her program to want to create an “alliance” with Moscow and advocates a “strategic rapprochement” between NATO and Russia after the war. This displayed proximity would fracture European and transatlantic unity in the face of the Russian aggressor. And would complicate the adoption of new EU sanctions – taken unanimously – against Moscow, since Marine Le Pen opposes those which could have consequences for our economy. Holy bread for Russia and all autocratic regimes.
Especially since, at the same time, the leader would take France out of NATO’s integrated command. A decision that would lead to a major loss of influence both in Europe and vis-à-vis the United States. “By denouncing European and international treaties to which France has subscribed, we would lose our credibility, adds Marc-Olivier Padis, director of studies at the Terra Nova think tank. We would then enter into a permanent transactional logic – as Donald had theorized Trump -, fluctuating according to political vagaries, which cannot give rise to real cooperation.”
Because contrary to what she says, Marine Le Pen does not really have allies on the Old Continent. His rapprochement with the head of the Polish government will probably not survive the war in Ukraine – Warsaw is more anti-Russian than ever. In reality, she could only rely on the Hungarian Viktor Orban, cantor of “illiberal” democracy, who received her with great fanfare in October 2021. “Marine Le Pen has a lot in common with Orban, that it is about his desire to weaken the European Union or to reduce Community programs to simple intergovernmental cooperation”, comments Peter Balazs, former Hungarian Foreign Minister. In this respect, the Hungarian attacks on the independence of justice and freedom of the press do not reassure the intentions of the French candidate, whose borrowings from the Hungarian leader are not only ideological. Didn’t she finance her campaign thanks to a loan of 10.6 million euros from a Hungarian bank belonging to a friend of Orban?
The success of Marine Le Pen would make another happy, far more powerful: Vladimir Poutine – who had already tried to tip the French presidential election in 2017 in favor of the RN. By allying with him, the candidate, who has long expressed her “admiration” for the head of the Kremlin, and whose party is indebted (until 2028) to Russia, would inevitably place our country under the influence of a dictator. Paradoxical, for a politician who only has the word “sovereignty” in her mouth.