2022 POLLS. Marine Le Pen seems left behind in voting intentions, a few days before the second round of the 2022 presidential election. Here is the latest poll and our compilation of the latest studies on the ballot.
The polls on the 2nd round of the 2022 presidential election have all given, for weeks, Emmanuel Macron ahead of Marine Le Pen in the voting intentions. The gap between the two candidates narrowed a few days before the first round before the outgoing president again recorded a few points to his advantage in recent days. But the election is not played, let us remember that a poll is only a photograph of the opinion at a given moment, and that it cannot be likened to a prognosis on the results of the ballot. Discover in this great summary the result of the latest poll published, but also the evolution of the Macron – Le Pen polls in recent weeks.
This “latest poll” featured here may come from different polling institutes, and each has a different methodology. Here are the ones that appear alternately on this page, with links to find out more about each survey.
What do the polls say about this revenge between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, five years after an identical second round in 2017? Even before the first round of this 2022 presidential election was held, polls had been published in the event of a second round confrontation in the presidential election between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron.
All the polls carried out before the first round gave Emmanuel Macron the winner. These pre-first round polls are gradually being supplemented by new studies carried out since Sunday, April 10, after the proclamation of the results.
The Ifop polling institute gives Emmanuel Macron at the top of the voting intentions for the 2nd round of the presidential election. Here are the developments of the survey over the last few days.
The polling institute Elabe gives Emmanuel Macron at the top of the voting intentions for the 2nd round of the presidential election. Here are the developments of the survey over the last few days.
The Opinion Way polling institute gives Emmanuel Macron at the top of the voting intentions for the second round of the presidential election. Here are the developments of the survey over the last few days.
What do the polls say about vote carryovers?
A Odoxa survey published on April 10 draws up the sociology of the respective electorates of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron: the popular categories and the 25-34 year olds position themselves more for Marine Le Pen while the wealthiest French people and the over 65s turn to Emmanuel Macron at more than 50%.
Polls on the voters of Mélenchon
Polls specify the voting intentions of voters who did not vote for the two candidates in the first round, a means of obtaining a vision of possible vote transfers for the second round.
According to the BVA survey for Orange er RTL published on April 15, 2022, “a majority of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters refuse to make a choice and think either to abstain (30%), or to vote white (22%)” . “But when they go to vote, they are significantly more likely to consider voting for Emmanuel Macron (30%) than for Marine Le Pen (18%)”, adds the institute.
According to the survey Ifop carried out for TFI-LCI on April 10 gave the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, very divided: 33% intended on this date to vote for Emmanuel Macron against 23% for Marine Le Pen while 44% lean for a blank vote, null or abstention.
Pécresse voter polls
The electorate of Valérie Pécresse also appears divided: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen would both obtain 35% of the voting intentions on this electorate when 30% do not position themselves according to the Ifop poll cited above. Unsurprisingly, Eric Zemmour’s electorate leans massively towards Marine Le Pen with 76% of voting intentions against only 4% for Emmanuel Macron. It is the electorate of the EELV candidate Yannick Jadot who is most favorable to Emmanuel Macron. According to this Ifop poll carried out on Sunday April 10 in the evening, they are 56% to position themselves for a vote in favor of the candidate LREM against 6% for Marine Le Pen. 38% lean towards a blank, null or abstention vote.