Was the National Rally wise this year? Enough, in any case, to see its main request satisfied. On the evening of December 23, François Bayrou announced the composition of his government, and Xavier Bertrand is not part of it. Tipped to become Keeper of the Seals, the president of the Hauts-de-France Regional Council was ultimately kept aside, at the express request of Marine Le Pen. No absolution envisaged, including a Christmas Eve eve. The leader of the far-right party, who harbors a very reciprocal grudge against him, had little taste for seeing the latter take the helm of the Ministry of Justice at a time when she is still awaiting the verdict of the trial for the parliamentary assistants affair. , in which she risks a penalty of ineligibility.
As is often the case with the National Rally, we must control double talk. On television sets, the Marinist elected officials took turns to ensure that a “question of casting” would be insufficient to lead to a vote of censure. François Bayrou was assured of the opposite. It was Marine Le Pen herself who took it upon herself to remind him of this, in a telephone call revealed by L’Express: the presence of Xavier Bertrand within her government would lead to an automatic vote of censorship from the frontists, she assured. The person concerned clearly understood what was happening to him. And even issued a furious press release to denounce a government “formed with the approval of Marine Le Pen”.
The RN again at the center of the game
Exit Xavier Bertrand, here comes Gérald Darmanin again. The former Minister of the Interior makes his return to the government, to Justice this time, and under the benevolent eye of the frontists. Happy coincidence, here is what he tweeted on November 13 about the Pas-de-Calais MP: “It would be deeply shocking if Marine Le Pen was deemed ineligible and, thus, could not stand for election of the French. Fighting Madame Le Pen is done at the ballot box, not elsewhere.”
December 24. The RN blows. François Bayrou can assure us that Marine Le Pen has “no influence” on the composition of the government, the frontists, for their part, smiled in front of their screen. “Alas, nothing will have been spared for the French: François Bayrou has brought together the coalition of failure,” Jordan Bardella pretended to lament on the social network X.
Among the 35 new ministers, an assembly of personalities largely recycled from the Macronist ranks, and relatively few figures from the left. Enough to leave a few good days ahead of the frontist populist argument, consisting of denouncing a “single party” against which it would be the only recourse. What, also, sufficiently annoys the left to push it to table a motion of censure, which would have the consequence of making, once again, the RN the pivotal force of the National Assembly. A ride for nothing, and the sailors are back at the center of the game.
No a priori censorship, and the expectation of an early presidential election
So much the better, because among the Frontists, we don’t have a taste for useless effort. The general policy declaration will not be made until January 14. Until then, it’s rest for Marine Le Pen’s troops. The boss of the RN group in the Assembly, for her part, simply reacted through a video published on her social networks in which she brushes aside the “non-events of the government soap opera”. The watchword for the moment: no a priori censorship from the Bayrou government, and the expectation of a “change of method” in the construction of the next budget. Understand: satisfy, again, the demands of the RN, whose “red lines” have not changed since Michel Barnier’s budget.
Above all, the budget is not what concerns Marine Le Pen the most at the moment. Moreover, the return to school in January is only perceived by the frontist as a “moment of temporary fluctuation”, which certainly generates “damaging inertia”, but which is an integral part of a “natural transition” of a ” “breathless diet”.
Marine Le Pen’s project can be summed up in two words: early presidential election. This is the bet of the Pas-de-Calais MP for the year 2025. Because she is convinced: the end of Emmanuel Macron’s reign will lead to a new bipolarization of political life. “And in this new configuration, for lack of a strong figure to support the right, the entire conservative bourgeoisie will vote for us rather than for a candidate from the left and the center, assures a relative. They will do so constrained and forced perhaps, but She will.” This is good, because on the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is making the same bet, certain that against Marine Le Pen, he would be the one who would win. Christmas is over, it’s time to look forward to next year.
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