This is how the war will develop in 2025 • The expert: Then we can expect a ceasefire – Ukraine willing to lose land
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has been going on for more than two years. Ukraine is fighting a defensive war, which is somewhat simpler than an offensive war, but with fewer resources. Russia, for its part, is conducting an offensive war with tactics that have been very costly for the country.
In this way, both countries are severely affected by the protracted war of attrition, according to Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius. He therefore assesses that peace negotiations may be close – already at the beginning of next year. This despite the fact that intense fighting is going on at the moment.
– I think that we should somehow prepare for a ceasefire or peace negotiations to occur in 2025. The reason for that is that the war has lasted so long that both sides are very exhausted, says Dixelius and continues.
– The overall thing we can expect from 2025 is that something will happen that brings peace closer, he says to TV4 Nyheterna.
A high price
Ukraine is trying to maintain control over its territory, especially in the Kursk region, which is important for their negotiating position vis-à-vis Russia. But the country may be forced to pay a high price to achieve peace. For example, they may have to accept an emergency solution and cede parts of occupied territories to Russia, according to Dixelius.
– They are absolutely willing to let go.
Dixelius believes that Ukraine may even agree to negotiate on the Crimean peninsula, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014. But releasing areas other than those currently occupied by Russia is out of the question.
– He wants more than what they currently occupy. And that is an impossibility. Ukraine will never agree to that.
Even the question of Ukraine’s membership in NATO may end up on the negotiating table. However, Dixelius does not believe that Ukraine will get NATO membership through, but that security guarantees from the EU or certain European countries may be relevant.
– Ukraine may have greater opportunities to join the EU and will probably fight hard for it.
Trump’s role in peace negotiations
The biggest uncertainty is how Donald Trump will act when he takes office as president. Russia hopes that he will force peace negotiations on terms that are favorable to them, Dixelius believes.
– How he will act when he takes office, no one knows for sure. But he will be significant.
– The Russians have high hopes that he will force peace negotiations that are favorable to them. Ukraine, for its part, also has hopes that Trump will somehow turn the situation upside down.