This is a new phase in the conflict in Ukraine. On the evening of Monday April 18, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the start of the Russian offensive in the east of the country. A month and a half after the start of the war, launched on February 24, the Kremlin, forced to review its plans, is now concentrating its efforts on the total capture of Donbass.
Vladimir Putin seems indeed to have engaged in a race against time as the symbolic date of May 9 approaches – the celebration of the capitulation of Nazi Germany in 1945. Is the Russian president playing his game? everything with this battle of Donbass? Answers with Carole Grimaud-Potter, professor of Russian geopolitics at the University of Montpellier.
L’Express: What distinguishes the offensive launched on Monday evening from the fighting observed in the region for several days?
Carole Grimaud-Potter: Clearly, the scale of the offensive. Since Monday evening, the Russian bombardments have intensified. With on the one hand the declaration of President Volodymyr Zelensky, and on the other, the confirmation, made this Tuesday, of the massive attack by the Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, the conflict seems to be entering a new stage.
For several days now, we have observed, particularly in northern Ukraine, an acceleration of the Russian offensive in Barvinkove, in the Izium region, and in Dobropillia, in Pokrovsk. The town of Kreminna, in the Luhansk oblast, was also taken by the Russians overnight from Sunday to Monday. The Russian army is thus gradually approaching Kramatorsk, the Ukrainian capital of Donbass. This state of progress of the Russian troops therefore seems to confirm that Vladimir Putin is now concentrating his efforts on the total capture of Donbass. A region which, I remind you, has two self-proclaimed republics recognized by Russia just before the outbreak of war on February 24.
How will the clashes materialize on the ground? Should we expect a massive operation from the Russians?
For the moment it is only a matter of bombardments, certainly intensified, but we cannot yet speak of a massive offensive. However, on each side there are some 50,000 men installed along the Donbass contact line.
Another unknown not to be underestimated: the weather, which promises to be chaotic and which seriously risks slowing down the movement of Russian army vehicles. Even if I have no doubt that as soon as the ground is drier, the offensive is likely to take on more importance. Which makes me personally fear violent clashes and heavy losses on each side.
Can the Ukrainian army resist? And if yes, how ?
Even if the Ukrainian troops are tired, those present in the region are very well trained. They also know the terrain perfectly, as they have already been fighting in this region for eight years. The battle, feared for several weeks, also had time to be prepared at the rear. In particular, food could be supplied. Western weapons will certainly continue to flow, despite recent targeted Russian attacks.
But the Russian forces should not be underestimated either. Reinforcements, including infantry and artillery, have been deployed to the region from Moscow. Even if the new troops do not know the territory well, they will be less tired and will be able to count on the pro-Russian separatists, who have also been there for eight years.
The new Russian strategy has a face, that of General Alexander Dvornikov, nicknamed the “butcher of Syria”. What can he do?
His reputation as a particularly brutal officer, his experience in urban guerrillas and his role in the massacres perpetrated by the Russian army in Syria in 2015 can indeed make us fear the worst. Even if I have the impression, for the moment, that everything that happened in Syria, we had it in Ukraine: the tortures, the violent interrogations, the disappearances, the rapes, the lootings… Everything is simply better documented today. The only difference for the moment: the use of chemical weapons… Will they go that far? We can’t rule it out, especially right now in Mariupol.
What are the stakes of this battle for both sides?
It must be borne in mind that the battle of Donbass is existential both on one side and on the other. Quite simply because it is decisive for both public opinions. For the Russians, it will certainly contribute to lifting in part the affront of the fall of the cruiser “Moskva”. Moreover, Vladimir Putin has sold the Russian people the defense of Russian-speaking populations. On the Ukrainian side, if the army emerges victorious, it will try, galvanized, to recover Mariupol.
Now, is the settlement of the conflict being played out in this battle? I absolutely don’t think so. This upcoming battle will in reality have nothing decisive, it may be long, even wear and tear. If Russia fails in the Donbass, other strategies will be put in place, even a scenario like the second war in Chechnya, when Russian troops returned in 1999 after their first defeat in 1996.
Do you think Vladimir Putin is playing his all-out in the Donbass?
I wouldn’t say it exactly like that. We talk a lot about May 9, as the deadline for Vladimir Putin. The conquest of Donbass would certainly be a semblance of victory. But for me, success or not, the commemoration will take place. Russia has already conquered almost all of southern Ukraine, up to Odessa. For the Kremlin, this is already a success in itself.
He is also determined to go through with the operation. In the end, it doesn’t matter how long it takes, or how many people die. He has the resources. He can also count on allies around the world. It is increasingly said that Russia is slowly moving towards a model of Chinese society… where the population does not really care about politics. This is already partly the case. The Russian people do not have the freedom to express themselves.
We finally find ourselves today at the starting point of the war, eight years back. It’s a disaster for every stakeholder. Diplomacy, with the Minsk agreements in 2014, didn’t work either since the fighting in the area never stopped. We have to realize this and question ourselves individually so as not to make the same mistakes today as eight years ago.