(Finance) – Mediobanca has increased a 3.75 euros per share (from the previous 3.55 euros) the target price on Ascopiavea group listed on Euronext STAR Milan and one of the main national operators in the natural gas distribution sector, confirming the recommendation “Outperform“.
Analysts say that the acquisition of the assets of A2A represents a transformational deal for Ascopiave. It will allow the company to focus further on its core business gas distribution and to exceed the objectives set in Scenario B of its 2027 business plan (which included the acquisition of new gas distribution concessions through tender). The acquisition will increase both Ascopiave’s RAB in gas distribution and its delivery points by approximately 50%: 1) the combined RAB would reach approximately 1.22 billion euros (from 0.82 billion euros), 2) delivery points would grow to 1.36 million (from 0.87 million).
Mediobanca therefore updated the estimates to include the impact of the consolidation of the gas distribution assets acquired from A2A and the exercise of the put option on Ascopiave’s remaining stake in EstEnergy. On average, it has increased 2025-27 estimates by +24% per year at EBITDA level and +37% at the level of adjusted net profit. He estimates the deal would leave Ascopiave’s financial structure well-balanced, with a net debt/EBITDA ratio just above 4x starting in 2025.
“The acquisition, combined with the exercise of the put option on the remaining stake in EstEnergy, would significantly simplify the company’s financial structure and it would improve visibility on the value components of the stock – we read in the research – The operation further highlighted the undervaluation implicit in the current share price. The current share price implies a discount on RAB of approximately -15% after including the contribution of the assets acquired from A2A. In our opinion, this discount is not reasonable, considering that the share price of major peers implies a premium on RAB of around 10%.”