Ministerial reshuffle, threat of censorship by the entire opposition in Parliament, specter of a resignation of the head of the executive… No, we are not in France but in Canada, where Justin Trudeau lived one of the weeks more tense since he took office as Prime Minister in 2015.
If he had already been contested in his own party for many months, with a popularity curve in free fall, things accelerated on Monday December 16. The day chosen by Chrystia Freeland, number 2 in the Canadian government, to loudly announce her resignation from the government. “We found ourselves at odds over the best path forward for Canada,” at a time when the country faces “a great challenge,” she wrote in a letter addressed to the Prime Minister and broadcast on X.
This “great challenge”, of which the one who was also Minister of Finance speaks, is located 900 kilometers south of Ottawa: in Washington. It risks once again shaking the region – and the world. This “threat”, therefore, is the one represented in his eyes by Donald Trump, who will make his grand return to the White House on January 20. Throughout his campaign, the future American president continued to emphasize his desire to reestablish significant customs tariffs towards all of the United States’ trading partners, and in particular up to 25% for Canada and Mexico. This measure would have a very concrete impact for Canadians, as three-quarters of the country’s exports are sent to the United States, and nearly 2 million people (out of a population of 41 million) depend directly on it.
Canada, possible “51st state” of the United States for Trump
These trade tensions are coupled with harsh criticism from Donald Trump on the regulation of illegal immigration from Canada to the United States. But to these political debates, we must also add the personal tensions between the president-elect and the Canadian Prime Minister. The latter, a figure of progressivism from the 2010s, with very controlled communication, is almost the perfect antithesis of what Donald Trump embodies. Their relations, during the Republican’s first term, were often stormy.
If Justin Trudeau went to Mar-a-Lago, the residence of Donald Trump, on November 29 to discuss the future of American-Canadian relations, the future tenant of the White House mainly took the opportunity to humiliate his counterpart. First of all, by constantly calling Justin Trudeau the “governor” of Canada, as a symbol of the political weight that he represents in his eyes. But he also went so far as to declare, in a message published on his social network Truth Social, that making Canada the 51st state of his country would be “an excellent idea”. A joke that he also made during his meeting with Justin Trudeau, according to the Fox News television channel, saying that if Canada could not survive the 25% customs duties that he wanted to reintroduce, it could become the 51st American state.
Distrust in one’s own camp
If the Prime Minister appears so weak in the face of Donald Trump, it is above all because he is so in his own country. In this sense, the resignation of Chrystia Freeland is particularly symbolic. Close among those close to Justin Trudeau since his arrival in power in 2015, she had notably played a central role in the renegotiations of Nafta – the free trade agreement between Mexico, Canada and the United States – between 2016 and 2020, already facing the protectionist wishes of Donald Trump. The latter was quick to celebrate his departure from the Canadian government. “The great state of Canada is stunned by the resignation or dismissal of the Minister of Finance by Governor Justin Trudeau. Her behavior was completely toxic, and not at all conducive to reaching agreements favorable to the very unhappy citizens of Canada will not miss her!”, he wrote, once again, on his social network. Truth Social.
This departure reflects the wave of discontent affecting Justin Trudeau’s party. Because a deadline is coming very quickly: the federal elections, which must be held before October 20, 2025. In the polls, the Liberal Party is so far ahead of the Conservative Party, and the current Canadian Prime Minister, by more than 20 points. is particularly blamed for the high inflation affecting the country, but also the housing and public services crisis.
Enough to make the Liberal Party fear a crushing defeat if no strong decision is taken by then. According to the newspaper count The Toronto Star16 of the 153 MPs from Justin Trudeau’s camp have already officially called for his departure, to which must be added all those who no longer hide their distrust behind the scenes. And it is not the ministerial reshuffle announced by the Canadian Prime Minister this Friday, December 20, with nearly a third of the government replaced, which has reversed the distrust in him.
Resignation, an option that is not ruled out
These federal elections could even be held earlier than expected. The New Democratic Party (NDP), former left-wing ally of Justin Trudeau, announced this Friday that it would table a motion of censure as soon as possible in the Canadian House of Commons. “This government’s time is up,” said NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in a scathing letter. “The Trudeau Liberals said a lot of good things. Then they let people down again and again. Justin Trudeau failed in his most important task as Prime Minister: working for the people,” he said. still affirmed.
This declaration upsets the balance within the Canadian Parliament. Because the 25 votes of the NDP, added to the 119 of the Conservative Party and the 33 of the Bloc Québécois, put the Liberal Party in a minority position within the House of Commons. In this situation, Justin Trudeau’s government would no longer survive the vote of confidence in Parliament.
Humiliated by Donald Trump, criticized in his party, on the verge of censorship by the opposition, a final solution could then be imposed on Justin Trudeau: that of resigning and bequeathing the responsibility of leading the next federal elections to another personality of his camp. According to Radio Canadathis option would not be ruled out by the Prime Minister, who would give himself time during the end-of-year holiday period to think about his future. “I think he has decided to leave,” a source within the Liberal Party who met Justin Trudeau in recent days told Canadian public radio. An assertion largely qualified by others close to the Prime Minister, who affirm that he “does not want to leave without the party having a plan in place for his succession”.
In any case, one thing seems almost certain: by October 20, 2025 at the latest, Canada should have a new head of government. And his name could well be Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservatives.