His first words still ring in their ears. Donald Trump’s victory was barely confirmed on November 6 when the heads of state and government of the European Union rushed to call him. Together, they decided that they needed to interact quickly and often with the winner. But at the end of the line, after the necessary congratulations, the future president of the United States quickly lets his discontent show. “It’s a mess! The world has become a real mess, he storms to one of his first interlocutors. When I left, there was no war. Now there is one. two, in the Middle East and in Ukraine. And I’m going to have to deal with that.” On the other hand, the Europeans are not completely taken by surprise, they have prepared simple answers in clear language. On the phone, they play on the heartstrings by warning of the disastrous effect that a hasty abandonment of Ukraine could produce, at a time when China is observing the conflict with Russia very closely: the future president of the United States of America really want to be seen as weak in the eyes of his Russian and Chinese counterparts?
These first exchanges are anything but trivial. In the months to come, the progress of the world could depend on the ability of a few to find the right words to address Donald Trump. The personality of the former real estate tycoon is widely taken into consideration in the strategies prepared by the leaders of the countries of the European Union. They also discussed it during a dinner in Budapest, the day after the election result. “Donald Trump has a similar background to that of Silvio Berlusconi [NDLR : l’ancien Premier ministre italien]. They have a different vision of politics, they are first and foremost businessmen who will defend their interests,” explained Giorgia Meloni in front of her counterparts. Faced with such a transactional interlocutor, the President of the Italian Council recommended being ultra- pragmatic and to defend European priorities without qualms “Europe wants to be central, but the new administration will devote 95% of its time to American interests, 3% to China and 2% to the rest of the world.” puts also keeps a European diplomat.
Ukraine, the most pressing subject
“Our big concern is his unpredictability,” confesses one of those who thought about the repercussions of Donald Trump’s comeback in advance. In Brussels, experts from the Commission and the European External Action Service have been working for six months, in consultation with certain capitals, including Paris. At the Quai d’Orsay, work began discreetly a year ago. “We took everything he said during his campaign very seriously, there was no question of dismissing anything out of hand,” says one of the senior officials involved.
In everyone’s eyes, the fate of Ukraine stands out as the most pressing subject. So when Donald Trump boasted that he could make peace in twenty-four hours, experts pondered the implications of his statement. “Vladimir Putin, who has no interest in it, would twist it, and that would buy us time to prepare,” a European source wants to believe. The scenarios range from the “most degraded” (Ukraine forced to capitulate, while Russia obtains all the territories it claims) to the “most favorable” (American aid maintained for Ukraine so that it comes to the negotiating table in a position of strength). Each time, specialists look for how Europeans can adapt. “Sometimes reality went beyond what we were able to imagine,” admits one of them. Like when future Vice President JD Vance threatened to condition American support for NATO on how the European Union would regulate Elon Musk’s X platform…
Mark Rutte, the man who knows how to whisper in Trump’s ear
Between now and his inauguration on January 20, the United States’ allies hope to convince Donald Trump not to let go of kyiv. They are ready to do more, but they need time. To get the message across, they are relying heavily on a former pillar of the European Council, the Dutchman Mark Rutte, who became NATO Secretary General this fall. Described as an outstanding political operator, this “Trump whisper“, chosen for his ability to whisper in the ear of the future tenant of the White House, already went to Florida at the end of November to renew contact.
The former Prime Minister of the Netherlands refined a narrative with a few allies, including Emmanuel Macron. It highlights the globalization of the conflict in Ukraine and the “horrifying fact” that Russia, North Korea, China and Iran are working together. Each time he speaks to the press, Mark Rutte methodically rolls out this argument tailor-made for Americans tempted by a pivot towards Asia. “The Euro-Atlantic zone and the Indo-Pacific zone are increasingly connected,” he argued on November 19 in Brussels.
A sophisticated argument. Too much, perhaps, for Donald Trump. “To coax him, the Europeans must above all do really, really more for their defense,” said Camille Grand, researcher at the European Council for International Relations. Today, the Twenty-Seven are close to 2% of GDP devoted to military spending, but the United States could demand 3%. However, the Europeans are struggling to put themselves in working order… Certainly, there is now a European commissioner in charge of defense, the former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, who must quickly present a white paper listing options to increase capabilities of the European arms industry. But it will be necessary to wait until the beginning of February for the heads of state and government to have a real strategic discussion on the subject during an “informal retreat” planned in Louvain in Belgium.
The thorny question of customs duties
However, there is urgency in the face of persistent divisions. Many countries are still reluctant to emancipate themselves too frankly from the United States, and France remains isolated in its fierce desire to build a truly autonomous European industry. “This is really the battle at the heart of the current discussions,” breathes a well-informed source. Germany, the Baltic countries and the Czech Republic are tempted to buy American to stay in Washington’s good graces. Even the Poles, who have significantly increased their military investments and who are pleading for joint European debt, are at the same time campaigning for the massive purchase of equipment from the United States.
Because, in addition to these issues linked to their security, Europeans are also preparing for economic tensions with their first partner. To reduce the American trade deficit, Donald Trump wants to implement customs taxes of 10% on imports of products from the Old Continent. The cost for the EU would be between 0.5 and 1.5% of GDP per year… The trade war that he intends to launch with China will also have repercussions, with Europe risking becoming the priority outlet for Chinese products. . In Brussels, the Commission therefore prepared a response, the details of which still remain secret. “We’re making 2018 again faster and more radical,” says one of the few people in the know. Six years ago, when the United States taxed its steel and aluminum exports, the Twenty-Seven counterattacked by targeting certain emblematic products such as Harley-Davidson, bourbon or Levi’s jeans.
In addition to this possible stick, Brussels is also brandishing some carrots. “We still buy a lot of liquefied natural gas from Russia. Why not replace it with cheaper American LNG?” Ursula von der Leyen said on November 8 in Budapest, without the prior agreement of the leaders of European countries. Some regret this exit, believing that it was necessary to keep this trump card up their sleeve to put it on the table at the most opportune moment. This is also the solution envisaged in the entourage of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union on January 1: buy LNG and weapons from the United States to reduce the trade deficit , dissuade Trump from imposing customs duties and strengthen the European arsenal at the same time. A combination that could appeal to countries concerned above all with the state of their economy, such as Germany or Spain, and those on the front line against Russia, such as the Baltics or the Scandinavians. But that does not please Paris at all, which would like to equip Europeans with its military equipment.
Orban and Meloni have a card to play
Trade, defense, but also relations with China, climate, deregulation, digital… On all these themes, the Twenty-Seven will have to reposition themselves. They await with apprehension the first steps of Joe Biden’s successor. But, in the meantime, new teams from the European institutions are being put in place. Since December 1, Ursula von der Leyen has begun a second term at the head of a strongly renewed Commission: the Portuguese Antonio Costa holds the presidency of the European Council, while the Estonian Kaja Kallas has taken the reins of diplomacy. We will have to wait until the elections in Germany in February to have the full cast of European heavyweights.
Who can best communicate with Donald Trump to influence him? Ursula von der Leyen risks paying for her close proximity to Joe Biden. Despite a France weakened by its economic difficulties and political instability, Emmanuel Macron remains essential in the eyes of his peers: the two men already know each other (and they recently spoke at the Elysée, with Volodymyr Zelensky, on the occasion of the reopening of Notre-Dame, where Trump sat next to the French president), and Paris weighs with its status as a nuclear power. Still, the best placed could be… Viktor Orban! “What we hear today from Donald Trump on the war in Ukraine is what Viktor Orban has been telling us for two years,” notes a participant in the European Council. Enough to give a new stature to the Hungarian Prime Minister within the concert of Twenty-Seven… From Rome, Giorgia Meloni also has a card to play, thanks to her proximity to the entrepreneur Elon Musk. “Via this access, she can have colossal influence, as interpersonal relationships are essential in the Trump environment,” continues our interlocutor.
Handicapped by a Franco-German engine with absent subscribers, the Europeans will have to use all channels and play on all fronts. After having faced the eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, Brexit, a pandemic and a war on their soil, they know that they are once again facing strong turbulence which will test their cohesion. And everything could happen very quickly, as Donald Trump seems determined to move forward at a rapid pace. “The European Union is fundamentally very slow, but when the essential is at stake it can react very quickly,” an experienced diplomat wants to believe. The countdown is on.
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