(Finance) – Given the decline in spread of the last months and of yields on Italian government bondsthe Italian yield curves expected for the period 2025-29 in the first half of December, compared to the hypotheses underlying the estimates of interest expenditure contained in the 2025 Structural Budget Plan (PSB), are lower on average by approximately 30 basis points in each year of the period. This is what emerges from an analysis conducted by the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) on recent trends in the spread and the estimated impact on interest expenditure on Italian public debt.
With these yield curves, the PBO forecast model calculates that the lower cost that the reduction in interest rates would determine on public debt interest expenditure in the next five years, compared to the PSB 2025, would be equal to a cumulative value of 17.1 billion in the period 2025-29 (1.7 billion in 2025, 2.6 billion in 2026, 3.6 billion in 2027, 4.5 billion in 2028 and 4.7 billion in 2029).
These values would result in a impact on GDP equal to 0.1 percentage points in each year of the three-year period 2025-27 and 0.2 percentage points in each year of the two-year period 2028-29.
A favorable effect would then be had on both deficitan indicator used in the context of the excessive deficit procedure, and on the evolution of debt in the short and medium term.
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