In recent weeks, through killings, kidnappings and hostage-taking, the terrorist sect, although considered weakened by officials and experts, has been credited with an “operational resurgence” in the northern part of Cameroon, where it sows desolation in several departments. The authorities in charge of defense speak of measures taken by the “military high command” to deal with the situation.
From our correspondent in Yaoundé,
The statistics speak for themselves. Between the end of August and the end of November, there were around twenty people killed, including an element of the Rapid Intervention Battalion [le BIR, une unité d’élite des forces camerounaises, NDLR]around fifteen hostages, an attack on a gendarmerie post, dozens of villages deserted by fearful populations.
The chronicle of the acts of Boko Haram, kept for many weeks by the tri-weekly The Eye of the Sahel, [le périodique régional le plus crédible qui couvre prioritairement l’actualité de la partie septentrionale du pays, NDLR]establishes a renewed vitality of Boko Haram, in the Far North region, bordering Chad, Nigeria and the Central African Republic.
According to several sources, the operational mode is the same: nocturnal incursions, generally unannounced, into the targeted localities, sudden irruptions targeting, in addition to the populations, symbols of state authority (a gendarmerie post) and traditional leaders. To which are added kidnappings, accompanied by demands for ransoms, without forgetting the killings. Objective: to stock up on food and livestock, the sale of which, according to specialists, ensures the group’s resilience.
Boko Haram weakened, but not destroyed
Even if the geostrategist Joseph Vincent Ntuda Ebode believes that the renewed vitality of the sect which thus seems to impose itself is not one, he still explains this return of Boko Haram at the front of the stage, in three points: “ In fact, its military defeat against conventional troops reduced it to its sole dimension as a terrorist group. That is to say, to adopt a strategy consisting of striking at times to stock up on medicines, food, weapons and then hiding while waiting for another opportunity. The main reason being, and here lies the second, the fact that it no longer has an important rear base (for having lost the territories it occupied in a lasting manner in the Lake Chad region and in Nigeria), to fall back and prepare robust attacks. He therefore multiplies his brilliant actions, a sign rather of his weakness due to the scarcity of resources. A third reason would be the decline in vigilance on the part of the forces, due to long waits in the theater of operations without confrontation. “.
Obviously, although Boko Haram has been weakened, the sect has not been wiped out. It owes its survival to a certain drop in vigilance following the reorganization of jihadist groups active in West Africa. “ There was a relative calm following the death of Sheka, linked to the bloody internal war between ISWAP [État islamique en Afrique de l’Ouest, NDLR]and JAS (aka Boko Haram) for control of space, especially around the Mandara Mountains. States failed to capitalize on this moment. This internal crisis allowed the groups to add less seasoned fighters and women and children who were difficult to feed. Today, the internal crisis has stabilized and the jihadists can once again attack their traditional enemies, the States. », deciphers Raoul Sumo Tayo.
Furthermore, the fact for States (Cameroon, Chad, CAR, Nigeria) to give priority to internal crises, has no small part in the recent resurgence of activity of the terrorist sect “ These States consider that this crisis [Boko Haram, NDLR] is in the stabilization phase while on the ground, the situation is deteriorating further. The routine linked to the duration of military engagements [dix ans pour le Cameroun, NDLR] makes you lose certain reflexes », Analyzes this senior researcher at the Institute of Security Studies in Pretoria.
“ This asymmetrical war will last a long time »
Looking over time, and taking into account regional dynamics, two other avenues are explored to explain this “ operational revival » of Boko Haram in Cameroon. First of all, ” In the aftermath of the fall of Sambisa, explains a defense expert, efforts have not been made towards the total eradication of Boko Haram, the Barkhane force and that of the G5 Sahel having contributed to depleting the soldiers of the fronts Niger And Chad for their commitment to West Africa. The dynamic principle is simple, it is stateless and avoids the sedentarizations which expose them. Fought at Mali and in Niger, elements of Boko Haram allegiances surreptitiously came to increase the number of fighters “.
And then: “The withdrawal of the Barkhane force and the inconsistency of the G5 Sahel have encouraged a shift of fighters towards the South, hence the resurgence that we are experiencing at the moment. Unfortunately, to regret it, none of the countries on the front line consciously took the time to analyze the situation to provide new relevant strategies, the latest being the exit of President Déby », Continues the same source.
How far will Boko Haram go in this new offensive in the Far North region of Cameroon? “ This asymmetrical war will last a long time. We cannot eradicate a terrorist movement. We weaken it substantially. But from time to time, and for various reasons, he can stand out through brilliant actions. », predicts Joseph Vincent Ntuda Ebode.
For the moment, since the sect’s comeback, the Cameroonian authorities, who assure that they have not let their guard down on this front, have taken a certain number of measures to deal with the situation. “ The Cameroonian Military High Command has significantly raised the alert level in this theater in order to protect us from surprise attacks with inevitably unfortunate consequences. Furthermore, the strengthening of our system by the Military High Command, especially at this time of the start of the dry season when mobility corridors are increasingly passable, remains the main alternative to favor for the moment. “, revealed Joseph Beti Assomo, Minister Delegate to the Presidency, in charge of Defense, during a special meeting to assess security emergencies in crisis regions, held on November 28. The second measure seems provisional. Pending the outcome of high-level consultations, following Chad’s recent withdrawal from the Multilateral Joint Force.