The remote clash between Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Israel is intensifying. After shooting at Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning to Yemenis and his army struck Yemeni ports and energy infrastructure. Strikes and aftershocks that have lasted since the start of the war in Gaza. The Shiite movement which controls the most populated part of Yemen is increasing attacks in support of Hamas and the Gazan population.
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By striking ships in the Red Sea, the Houthis are destabilizing international traffic and continuing their missile attacks on Israel. Interview with Abdul-Ghani Al Iryani, researcher for the Yemeni think tank Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies.
RFI: How do you assess the consequences of the Israeli raids on the capabilities of the Houthis?
Israelis strike civilian targets. None of the targets they hit last night or before were military. These are civil infrastructures, such as ports and power plants. Around two thirds of the population of the capital Sanaa (3.4 million inhabitants) will have no electricity. And, in addition to not harming the Houthis, it helps them. Because when the civilian population is subjected to such coercion, they are more likely to join the Houthi forces. This improves their ability to recruit fighters and control the population.
Precisely, estimates of the Houthi fighting forces are extremely variable. Where do you place the cursor?
The most realistic estimates are in the range of 600,000 to 700,000. The Houthis have taken control of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Yemen. So they had all the fighters from the old system. Then they recruited, very aggressively, over the last ten years. The estimate of 600,000 troops seems entirely reasonable to me, as this has increased since the start of the war in Gaza. Even if obviously these troops are not going to defend Gaza. They are recruited mainly to kill Yemenis.
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The “Axis of Resistance” around Iran, which includes the Houthis, lost an ally with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. How does this affect Yemeni rebel forces?
This is bad news, for the Houthis and for Gaza. Clearly, “The Axis of Resistance” is partly brokenIran is isolated. And Tehran does not see the Houthis as lasting allies. There are theological differences between Iranian Shiism and that advocated by the Houthis [les rebelles sont d’obédiences zaydistes, une branche du chiisme, NDLR].
The Yemenis need development aid that the Iranians will not provide when the war is over. Our Saudi neighbors, who have been involved in Yemen for good and bad things, are the only ones with the capacity to help the country with the funds necessary for future reconstruction. So the Houthis will not be Iran’s eternal allies. This is why Tehran is pushing them to challenge the United States and Israel now, knowing that this can ultimately lead to the destruction of the Houthis. But the logic is this: let’s use this card before it is destroyed by a possible peace agreement.
The Houthis have developed a substantial military arsenal (missiles, drones). Is it enough to continue attacks alone in the Red Sea and against Israel?
Regarding Israel, the answer is no. They must receive a steady supply of long-range missiles from Tehran, which is not necessarily guaranteed. But for attacks on the civilian fleet in the Red Sea, they can continue indefinitely. The systems they use, whether boats, submarines, or drones, are inexpensive to produce and parts are easy to find. Additionally, spare parts are readily available on the international black market, allowing them to continue their attacks.
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