Surrounded by bodyguards, we see on a video the head of the Turkish intelligence services, Ibrahim Kalin, leaving the Umayyad Mosque, a mecca of Islam, welcomed by a large crowd. The powerful dignitary arrived in Damascus on Thursday, December 12, just after the appointment of Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir, and four days after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Taking everyone ahead, Turkey was the first capital to reopen its embassy in the Syrian capital, closed in March 2012. When will there be a visit from its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had promised, at the time, that would he go to pray in this Umayyad mosque, once the Syrian dictator was deposed?
Turkish diplomacy, which intends to reap the benefits of its support for the Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir el-Sham (HTC), the new strongmen of Syria, is on the offensive. She was also on the front line, Saturday December 14, during the summit devoted to the Syrian crisis, in Aqaba, which welcomed representatives from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar, as well as their Turkish and American counterparts, and the UN special envoy for Syria. Without forgetting the head of European diplomacy, the Estonian Kaja Kallas, and the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, the only representative of a European state.
Initially cautious, the chancelleries are jostling today in Damascus. In addition to Turkey, Qatar has also reopened its embassy. For their part, the United States, then the United Kingdom, established “diplomatic contacts” with HTC, an organization still classified as terrorist by London and Washington. Just like the UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, who met Abu Mouhammed Al-Joulani, the head of HTC.
“Establishing first contacts”
Complicated, for Europe (which has just sent its high representative to Syria) and for France, to exist in this complex equation, where everyone tries to play their part. Paris, which sent a diplomatic mission on Monday, a first in twelve years, nevertheless wants to make its voice heard. It is a question of “establishing initial contacts” with the new authorities, of checking whether their declarations, “rather reassuring”, are actually followed up, and of “measuring” the humanitarian needs of the population, declared Sunday Jean-Noël Barrot on France Inter. The mission, made up of four people, and in which Jean-François Guillaume, special envoy for Syria, will participate, will be short-lived – barely 24 hours on site – and will not come into contact with the Syrian authorities at the highest level. , but at a more “technical” level. During this inventory, the French will visit their former diplomatic buildings, even if the reopening of the embassy is, at this stage, not on the agenda.
Even if it unambiguously welcomed the departure of the “butcher of Damascus”, responsible for hundreds of thousands of victims, French diplomacy wants to be “vigilant” in the face of several major dangers for its interests, in a moment of great volatility. The first is linked to terrorism. Paris fears that thousands of jihadists – including dozens of French people – currently locked up in prisons and camps monitored by Kurds in the northeast of the country, will manage to escape if the latter are attacked by the forces Turkish (hence the desire to work locally on a solution with the different actors). Another risk is that of a resurgence of the Islamic State (IS), still present in Syria, particularly in the South-East, thanks to a fragmentation of the country and a weakening of the State.
Paris also fears the consequences of a return to Lebanon of Hezbollah fighters, who had crossed the border in recent years to defend the Syrian regime. The Elysée, which worked with the United States for a fragile ceasefire in the Land of Cedar, wants to avoid destabilization of this country by the Lebanese Shiite militia or by Sunni Islamist groups encouraged by the success of HTC.
French Constance
In this context, France intends to play a role in supporting the opposition in this political transition. Its great asset, unlike other European powers, is that it has never compromised with Bashar al-Assad since the start of the civil war twelve years ago, and has maintained close contacts with the Syrian opposition, via its emissaries in the region, and civil society. “It must be recognized that French diplomacy, on this issue, has always been very consistent. Since 2011, we have always condemned the regime and its abuses, unlike some, who pushed us to normalize our relations in the name of realism : good thing for us”, recalls Bertrand Besancenot, former ambassador to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Both François Fillon, when he was a presidential candidate in 2017, and Marine Le Pen, had called for a normalization of relations with Bachar; Jean-Luc Mélenchon also showed his support.
Furthermore, even though it has lost much of its influence in the Middle East, France remains the most diplomatically active country in the region. The fact that it is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a major player in the European Union also weighs in the balance. “We still have a few cards in hand: no liabilities with the new authorities, a historical heritage (the country was Francophile and French-speaking for a long time) and this position at the UN which can be valuable for Damascus,” summarizes Michel Duclos, special advisor at the Montaigne Institute and former ambassador to Syria. Especially since Paris has good relations with two countries expected to play a major role in Syria: Qatar, which is already positioning itself as a leading intermediary, and Saudi Arabia. “Emmanuel Macron’s recent trip to Riyadh aimed in particular to accelerate cooperation on subjects of common interest, such as the stabilization of Lebanon, the fight against ISIS or the two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict”, underlines Bertrand Besancenot.
For now, Paris is making its mark. Jean-François Guillaume, the recently appointed special envoy for Syria, knows Arab countries well: political advisor in Riyadh between 2007 and 2008; stationed in Baghdad from 2012 to 2015, then at the French embassy in Beirut. “If we want to be listened to by the new Syrian authorities, we must give them the feeling that we are engaging with them – provided, however, that they respect a certain number of rules to have the support of Europe , Gulf countries and the United States,” continues Bertrand Besancenot. According to Jean-Noël Barrot, the meeting in Aqaba, Jordan, on December 14, made it possible to define these conditions: “respect for minorities”, “human rights” and “women’s rights”, as well as the “fight against Daesh and terrorism”.
France, which would like to move quickly towards an “inclusive” political transition, particularly regrets that the new power in Damascus is for the moment only embodied by HTC officials who governed in the Idlib region. “The whole challenge will be to succeed in exercising our influence on regional actors (Emiratis, Qataris, Saudis, Turks, Israelis, etc.), to avoid the mistakes made in Libya, where each had supported one faction against another,” points out the diplomat Michel Duclos. After the fall of Gaddafi, the country descended into civil war, with two clans claiming power. France had for a time secretly supported General Haftar, the strong man in the east of the country, while officially recognizing the government of national unity in Tripoli (recognized by the UN). An ambiguous attitude which has undermined the credibility of the French authorities in the country.
The objective, in Syria, is also to avoid the collapse of the state and the army. “For the moment, the new regime has no intention of getting rid of the leaders of the Syrian army,” observes Bertrand Besancenot. Left to their own devices in Libya, military leaders had turned into warlords.
France, which wants to be cautious about the risk of radicalization of the regime, has also condemned the recent incursion of the Israeli army into the “buffer zone” of the Golan Heights, in Syrian territory, asking it to withdraw its troops. A signal that cannot displease the new Syrian power. Even if other capitals have gotten ahead of Paris.
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