About SEK 1.50 per kilowatt hour (kWh). This is how much electricity cost on average in southernmost Sweden (electricity area 4) last week. You have to go back to the week before Christmas two years ago when the electricity price debate was at its height to find higher prices. Even in Svealand, the weekly price was at an unusually high level, just under SEK 1.20/kWh, while northerners only paid around 9-10 öre for electricity.
But now several factors point to the winter not looking so bloody after all. This weekend the price shock died down and ahead of the coming week, wind and mild air dominate in southern Sweden as well as, which is not least important, also in Germany. With better conditions for German electricity production, the risk of contagion with high prices in southern Sweden is reduced.
– The whole next week will be very windy in Germany, said Johan Sigvardsson, electricity analyst at the electricity trading company Bixia, to TT the other day.
Low on Monday
That forecast stands.
Ahead of Monday’s pricing on the electricity exchange Nord Pool, the weekend’s trend continues. In electricity area 4, the daily price is 24 öre, 27 öre in electricity area 3 and 7-8 öre in the two northernmost electricity areas.
And in the slightly longer term, there are several factors that will moderate electricity prices overall over the winter, even if more price peaks will occur when the weather is unfavorable.
The water reservoirs in the Nordic region are full, the levels are higher than normal. Gas prices on the continent have fallen 15 percent since the beginning of December. Gas-produced electricity is an important element for pricing in, for example, Germany.
Falling prices in the long run
This is clearly visible in the expected price picture on Nasdaq’s electricity exchange, which trades in electricity contracts for the future. The Nordic average electricity price for the first quarter of 2025 is now around 55 öre/kWh, which usually means a bit higher in southern Sweden and cheaper in the north.
For the full year 2025, the Nordic electricity price is 33 öre/kWh, a drop from 38 öre a month ago, according to pricing on Nasdaq’s electricity exchange.
On top of the stock market prices, the electricity retailers’ mark-up, electricity tax, VAT and electricity grid fee of over one kroner per kWh are added.