In more than thirteen years of civil war, Bashar al-Assad has been stingy with his trips abroad. One of his rare official visits took place in Hangzhou, China, in September 2023. Welcomed in a picturesque lakeside residence, the former Syrian president exchanged a few smiles and handshakes with his counterpart Xi Jinping. The ideal opportunity to reaffirm the ties that unite the two countries and to establish a “strategic partnership”.
A year later, his overthrow does not seem to faze Beijing. “The friendly relations between China and Syria concern all the Syrian people,” assured the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry after the fall of the regime.
Lots of words…
This friendship is not new. Before the start of the conflict in 2011, some Chinese companies, such as Sinopec, had bet on the Syrian oil sector. Investments subsequently frozen. The oil fields in question are now controlled by the Kurds. But things could soon change. “Today, we see tensions between the Kurds and the Syrian opposition,” explains Benjamin Fève, consultant at the analysis firm Karam Shaar Advisory and specialist in the country. “The latter could be tempted to push back the Kurdish administration. At that point, China would have complete freedom to recover its assets, especially if sanctions on the Syrian oil sector are lifted.”
Despite the war, China ranks in the top 3 exporters to Syria. In 2022, the Sino-Syrian alliance reached a new stage, with the signing of an agreement integrating Damascus into the Chinese corridor of the new Silk Roads. A nod to history: Aleppo and Palmyra were key stops on the ancient trade route.
For Syria, this rapprochement is crucial. The damage from a decade of civil war amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Among its few partners, China appears to be the ideal candidate for reconstruction. Already in 2017, Beijing had promised to devote two billion dollars to it. “China was Assad’s preferred choice for rebuilding Syria, says Jonathan Fulton, associate expert at the Atlantic Council. The new government could choose not to take offense at Beijing’s past support for the Assad regime and continue with the discussions on reconstruction.”
…and few actions
On the ground, however, Chinese promises are not translated into action. “China is not a philanthropic country, it only invests when it has something to gain from it,” notes Fabrice Balanche, Middle East specialist and author of the book. Lessons from the Syrian crisis (Odile Jacob). In this country targeted by international sanctions and weakened by a deadly conflict, Beijing is struggling to identify opportunities. “Endemic corruption does not encourage him to invest. There is little chance that this will change with the new regime,” continues the researcher.
This “strategic partnership”, which Bashar al-Assad welcomed, is in fact only one bilateral agreement among the myriad signed by the Asian power… without concrete outcomes. Especially since the sums allocated by China to the new Silk Roads have decreased in recent years. “Beijing is refocusing on its internal economy. The Chinese government has learned its lesson about the disappointments and risks linked to financing projects with uncertain, even negative, economic models. Its investments are becoming more targeted, with a concern for profitability,” notes Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, economist at Standard Chartered bank.
For Fabrice Balanche, China could become economically involved in Syria in a specific scenario: “If HTC [NDLR : le groupe rebelle islamiste Hayat Tahrir al-Cham] establishes an Islamic totalitarianism which leads to a form of stability, and that Syria obtains financing from Qatar, Saudi Arabia or the World Bank for its reconstruction, Chinese companies will rush to it.” The fact remains that Syria is not a priority ally in the region. “It is a long-standing friendly country, but which does not have the same importance for Beijing as Iran or Saudi Arabia. This explains why cooperation is not functioning to its full potential,” underlines Mohamad Zreik, researcher at the Middle East Center at China’s Sun Yat-sen University.
In January 2008, the Chinese government committed to granting a zero-interest loan to build a “friendship bridge” spanning the Euphrates in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor. Seventeen years later, the project is still in limbo.
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