Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius: Could be the beginning of the end of Russian presence
Russia appears to be moving military equipment from the Khmeimim airbase in western Syria after the fall of the Syrian regime. This has been reported by several media with reference to new satellite images from the space technology company Maxar.
The images show two transport aircraft lined up on a runway seemingly ready to be loaded and take off. Helicopters are also being dismantled and prepared for transport, reports among others Washington Post. In addition, Russian anti-aircraft systems are said to have been moved.
Double smock for Moscow
According to Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius, it indicates that Russia is about to pack up and withdraw its military forces from Syria. Something that he would mean a “double whammy” for Moscow.
– Russia loses in two ways. They lose their own presence in Syria, but they also lose at the same time that Iran, which is among the countries that support Russia’s war against Ukraine, backs down, says Dixelius and continues:
– A broken Iran and an evacuation from Syria, it’s a double whammy against Moscow. They pull back and lick the wounds after a good pacifier.
He adds that Russia’s influence in the Middle East is now at its lowest level since the Soviet era.
– This definitely means two things, that Russia’s influence is drastically decreasing, and that Turkey’s influence is increasing to about the same extent as Russia’s is decreasing. Turkey has greater interests in Syria, as it does not want to see an expansion of the Kurdish presence in the north of the country.
Evacuating Russians in Syria
Dixelius believes that Russia will use the air base for a short time in the future to be able to evacuate its own people who are in the country.
– There has been an evacuation order for all civilians who need help getting home. So they probably want to keep the air base for a while to be able to evacuate that way.
– Then it obviously looks like they also want to get rid of valuable material. After all, this base has been defended by advanced Russian air defense, and you have seen in these pictures that they are packing up.
Conversations with the leaders
At the same time, Russia has indicated early on that it wants to have talks with the current leaders in Syria, in order to save what can be saved, says Dixelius. But he thinks it is unlikely that they will be allowed to keep bases or troops in the country.
An alternative that is on the table is that they turn to another country such as Libya, where the Russians support the illegitimate government, Dixelius believes.
– The arrows indicate that this is what they have in mind, but we do not know if it is a short-term solution or if they actually have plans to establish themselves in Libya.
– It has been seen that there are aircraft movements between Syria and Libya, which partly needs Russian support, but which may also be able to offer an air base. Russia also wants somewhere to manage the logistics for the paramilitary units that are in various parts of Africa.