Often consulted by Emmanuel Macron in recent days, François Bayrou is presented as a favorite for the post of Prime Minister. The PS is not satisfied, but could live with it.
The political crisis could therefore play to the advantage of the MoDem boss. François Bayrou is one of the big favorites to be named Prime Minister, according to the indiscretions of several close to Béarnais, who spoke with the political media. The former presidential candidate could access Matignon, even if it will be necessary to ensure this Thursday that there is no censorship of the socialist deputies. And this could well be done: François Bayrou and Olivier Faure would have had an “aside deemed positive”, after Tuesday’s meeting at the Élysée Palace, according to information from Politico. This discussion between the two men would have convinced within the MoDem that there is indeed a way for François Bayrou to govern without exposing himself to a motion to eject him. Olivier Faure nevertheless insisted yesterday on BFMTV that the centrist was “not the right choice”. But this declaration does not worry the MoDem executives. “He couldn’t say anything else. He’s not going to say that François Bayrou suits him, we’re not asking that much,” a centrist tenor slipped to Politico.
Is cordial understanding possible? What will count and which will bring François Bayrou to Matignon lies in the content of the negotiations between Olivier Faure and François Bayrou, determined to form a tight government. The suspense will be short-lived: Emmanuel Macron should reveal the name of the future Prime Minister this Thursday, December 12, in the evening.
At 73 years old and with a long political career behind him, François Bayrou has mastered the mysteries of power and has an aura within the political sphere. He seems capable of speaking to the right and the left and promoting compromise: the only solution that will allow the future Prime Minister to resist a possible motion of censure from the National Assembly. Moreover, this close advisor and long-time ally of Emmanuel Macron is not content to be an option, he actively participates in the negotiations. He was also present at the big meeting at the Elysée with “all the parties”, except the RN and LFI, on Tuesday December 10. He was also entitled to a one-on-one meeting with the head of state on December 5. On Wednesday, December 11, several exchanges even took place between François Bayrou and Emmanuel Macron, “on this famous method desired by the president and the architecture of the government”, specifies Politico.
The Bayrou hypothesis accepted on the right, not yet on the left
According to Emmanuel Macron’s plan, the future Prime Minister must be assured of the support of all deputies from the right, the central bloc and the left with the exception of LFI in the event of a motion of censure. The name of François Bayrou seems to have made its way among the elected representatives of the Les Républicains party who, according to its deputy general secretary Geoffroy Didier invited to Franceinfo, does not oppose the appointment of the centrist who “could be a solution”. Support which was not won in advance since part of the right continues to see in François Bayrou, one of the most vocal opponents of Nicolas Sarkozy and the man who deprived the former president of a re-election in 2012.
Conversely, the hypothesis of seeing François Bayrou at Matignon does not rejoice the left. After the first secretary of the PS judged on BFMTV that the Prime Minister “could not be François Bayrou”, nothing is however excluded. The centrist, who has contacts with the left and who has sent his deputies to exchange views with socialists, ecologists and communists, hopes to be able to have his name accepted. François Bayrou noted that Olivier Faure did not speak of “censorship” in the appointment of François Bayrou. The fact remains that an executive from his party did so to Libération, ensuring that a non-censorship agreement is only valid for a left-wing Prime Minister…
A little extra all the same, François Bayrou might not suffer from automatic opposition from the RN. The boss of MoDem has indeed always had a form of respect for Marine Le Pen, considering her in the same way as other political leaders, and recently opposed the idea that a sentence of ineligibility be required and then pronounced. against far-right politics. Support in the event of censorship on which the future Prime Minister should not count since the idea is to no longer depend on the RN, but which could still be useful. But after the obvious exclusion of the RN from the negotiations, the situation could change even in the event of the appointment of François Bayrou.
Bayrou in favor of a “disinterested and pluralist government”
François Bayrou has a precise idea of the strategy that seems to him to be the right one in this period of political crisis with a National Assembly lacking a sufficient majority to govern alone. The centrist has been pleading for months for the formation of a “disinterested, pluralist and coherent government” made up of “personalities of character”, without specifying the political sides which could or could not take part in it, as recalled Le Figaro. A vision which is similar to that proposed by Emmanuel Macron before the appointment of Michel Barnier this summer and the resumption of negotiations after censorship in recent days, but which also presents differences. Although he is a historic ally of the Head of State, François Bayrou has distanced himself from Macronist politics in recent years and never hesitates to express his opposition to presidential plans when he feels like it. An independence which makes the hypothesis of a change of political course possible, although limited.
If on the left we fear that François Bayrou will not allow us to mark the expected break, within the Macronists some fear that the centrist will claim too much independence and freedom in relation to Emmanuel Macron’s policy in the event of disagreements. The previous opposition of the head of the MoDem to the head of state has earned the former a certain reputation, some go so far as to consider him as “a complete pain in the ass” like someone close to the head of state At Parisian. “And Macron knows it,” adds the same person. A reputation which could earn him to stay once again in front of the doors of Matignon.
09:50 – A decisive exchange between Bayrou and Faure?
On Wednesday December 11, the leader of the PS, Olivier Faure, affirmed that François Bayrou was “obviously not the right choice”. An exit which does not seem to worry too much in the ranks of the MoDem. “He’s not going to say that François Bayrou suits him, we’re not asking that much (…) Faure couldn’t say anything else,” a party source told Politico. Bayrou and Faure even had a “positive aside” after Tuesday’s meeting at the palace. A discussion synonymous with cordial understanding between the two men? And a trip to Matignon for the centrist? Answer, if the deadlines are respected, this Thursday evening with the potential announcement of the new Prime Minister by the Head of State.
“I understand his reluctance (…) But he is more in compromise than Boris Vallaud”, would have indicated Emmanuel Macron who “appreciated the attitude of Olivier Faure, and he understands his position”, according to a Macronist senator with from Politico. Indeed, what could matter lies rather in the content of the negotiations between Olivier Faure and the Macron camp if François Bayrou were appointed to Matignon. Will a non-censorship agreement be validated? It is clear that the negotiations are progressing well, and are, for the moment, working to the advantage of François Bayrou.