This is one of the many questions looming after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime: what will happen to the stockpiles of chemical weapons which probably remain in the country? The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which has been investigating Syria’s arsenal since 2013, has consistently encountered delays and obstructions from Syria’s former government, fueling suspicions that Damascus does not give a complete picture of the situation.
While Israel announced that it had carried out strikes to destroy “chemical weapons” in Syria, in order to prevent them from falling “into the hands of extremists”, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTC), main rebel group which took power in the country, pledged to “cooperate with the international community” on this subject. Focus on the situation in the country.
What is the current situation?
The Director General of the OPCW, Fernando Arias, expressed on November 25 his “grave concern” regarding Syria’s potential stockpile. He said there could remain “large quantities of potentially undeclared or unverified chemical warfare agents and chemical munitions” in this country.
Since 2014, the OPCW has reported 26 unresolved issues regarding Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. Since then, only seven have been resolved, he said. “Despite more than a decade of intensive work, the Syrian Arab Republic’s chemical weapons case still cannot be closed,” he told an OPCW annual meeting.
What did the former Syrian authorities say?
Under the threat of American strikes in September 2013, Vladimir Putin’s Russia claimed to have agreed with Syria that it agree to join the OPCW and that it declare and hand over its stock of chemical weapons.
An event in August 2013 notably aroused emotion and reaction from the international community: the massacre in Eastern Ghouta. This double bombardment with sarin gas, a powerful and deadly nerve agent, left more than 1,000 dead, according to American intelligence. This chemical attack had crossed the “red line” set by the American president at the time, Barack Obama, who threatened to trigger American strikes. It had been attributed to the Syrian power by numerous independent reports, even if the regime of Bashar al-Assad had denied and accused the rebel forces.
In January 2016, the OPCW announced the complete withdrawal and destruction of 1,000 tonnes of chemical weapons from Syria declared by the authorities. But upon joining the OPCW, the latter suspected that Syria’s initial declaration in 2013 was full of “gaps and inconsistencies”. “It is quite clear that the declaration was never complete and that they still have chemical weapons stored somewhere,” observes to AFP Lennie Phillips, researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, based in London .
Why did the OPCW suspend Syria?
In 2021, OPCW members suspended Syria’s voting rights after a new investigation accusing Damascus of using chemical weapons. The OPCW had established that the Syrian Air Force used the nerve agent sarin and chlorine gas in three attacks in Latamne in 2017. Pressure increased further when a second OPCW investigation established that a Syrian helicopter dropped a chlorine bomb on the rebel town of Saraqeb in 2018. Damascus then failed to meet the 90-day deadline to declare the weapons used in attacks, reveal its remaining stockpile and comply with OPCW inspections.
In 2014, the OPCW established a mission to investigate the use of chemical weapons in Syria. This team published 21 reports covering 74 suspected cases of chemical weapons use, according to the OPCW. Investigators concluded that chemical weapons were used or likely used in 20 cases. In 14 of these cases, the chemical used was chlorine. Sarin was used in three cases and mustard gas was used in the other three.
Using forensic analysis, witness interviews and medical tests on victims, the OPCW concluded that the Syrian army was also responsible for a chlorine attack in the rebel-held town of Douma in 2018 which killed 43 people. The OPCW also established that the jihadist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant carried out a chemical weapons attack in September 2015 in the Syrian town of Marea.
What reaction will the international community have after the fall of el-Assad?
Washington said the United States was doing everything it could “to prudently ensure” that these weapons did not fall into anyone’s hands. The head of Israeli diplomacy confirmed this Monday that his country had carried out strikes in recent days to destroy “chemical weapons” in Syria, in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of the radical Islamist rebels who overthrew Bashar al-Assad on Sunday.
For its part, the OPCW announced on Monday that it had contacted the new Syrian authorities “in order to emphasize the paramount importance of guaranteeing the safety and security of all materials and installations linked to chemical weapons” in the country. “To this day […] “Syria’s declaration of its chemical weapons program still cannot be considered accurate and complete,” the OPCW insisted, saying that “serious concerns remain about the completeness of Syria’s initial declaration and the fate significant quantities of unaccounted chemical weapons,” she added.
What are the new Syrian authorities saying?
For its part, the Islamist group HTC has pledged to “cooperate with the international community in everything relating to the surveillance of weapons and sensitive areas”. In a statement released on Saturday and translated by the SITE intelligence group, a private US organization that monitors jihadist and extremist groups on the Internet, HTC assured that it would protect the remaining stockpiles of chemical weapons in the country and ensure that They are not used against citizens.
“We clearly affirm that we have neither the intention nor the desire to use chemical weapons or weapons of mass destruction, whatever the circumstances,” assured the “political affairs department” of the Islamist group. “We will not authorize the use of any weapon against civilians or as a tool of revenge or destruction,” HTC added.
The Islamist group finally affirmed its intention to secure military sites and “under no circumstances allow these sites or these weapons to fall into irresponsible hands.” But not necessarily to get rid of it, therefore. And given the current instability in the country, this is enough to raise concerns.