Syria wakes up without Bashar al-Assad. The rebels, led by radical Islamists, announced on public television the fall of the Syrian dictator, in power for 24 years. With the “liberation” of Damascus, the country’s capital, the dazzling offensive put an end to more than five decades of rule by the Assad family. While cries of joy resounded in the capital, the United Nations envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, called, this Sunday, December 8, to maintain “cautious hopes”.
For Myriam Benraad, professor of international relations at Schiller International University and author of Mechanics of conflict: cycle of violence and resolution (editions Le Cavalier Bleu), the Syrian situation is reminiscent of that of Iraq in 2003. At the time, the promise of democratization, after the fall of dictator Saddam Hussein, had never seen the light of day, giving way to chaos. Twenty years later, the victory of the rebel groups could direct this country, already marked by a decade of war, towards an “Islamist, even jihadist, diktat”.
L’Express: While the Baath party – in the hands of the Assad clan – has reigned for half a century, can we speak of liberation for the Syrian people?
Myriam Benraad: This liberation is not really one. We only have to look at the tens of thousands of civilians who are fleeing the conquered territories, and more broadly all of Syria. We must be careful with the images broadcast, because they are those of jihadist movements. They are not unanimous and do not reflect all the reality on the ground.
The popular euphoria here and there makes me think of the first day of the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003. This was to be the spearhead of a democratization of the Middle East, which however never took off locally. This event provoked a very violent armed insurrection against American forces, which then transformed into the Islamic State of Iraq. And it all ended with the proclamation, in 2014, of a so-called “caliphate” over very large parts of Iraqi and Syrian territories.
Returning to Syria, the offensive was led by a coalition of Islamist forces with a jihadist tendency led by the Levant Liberation Organization – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Arabic, HTS. This movement, stemming from the Al-Qaeda movement established in Syria, was renamed the Al-Nusra Front during the first years of the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011. Then, it dissociated itself from the global jihad to ” “Syrianize” its armed combat.
What is the objective of these rebel groups in Syria?
The members of the HTS are presented as rebels, but we must above all be interested in their ideology and their objective which was to overthrow the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad whom they described as apostate. There, what we mainly see are jihadist movements which deliberately use a democratic discourse with a view to imposing governance structures which would be authoritarian. They have already banned a certain number of things from the population.
To achieve their goals, they carried out a seduction operation among Westerners. Moreover, if the Americans have not commented excessively on these latest developments in Syria, they are undoubtedly no strangers to the green light given by Turkey to some of these men to seize territory and power. in such a brutal way.
While the regime of Bashar al-Assad conveyed the image of a certain stability, how can we explain the meteoric rise of HTS across the country?
There were signals warning of the possibility of an assault by rebel groups. Its speed is less due to the power of this alliance of jihadist forces than to the weakness of the Bashar al-Assad regime which certainly gave the impression of having stabilized the situation. Except that currently, we are observing a surrender of the Syrian national army, with thousands of soldiers having crossed the border with Iraq to take refuge there. Furthermore, this rise was facilitated by the state of apathy of the civilian population, cornered by conflicts and a desperate socio-economic situation.
To which are added regional factors. Starting with the withdrawal of Iran’s proxies, armed groups friendly to the Tehran regime, which indirectly supported that of Assad, as well as the relative disengagement of Russia which weakened its traditional Syrian ally.
What will be the consequences in the region from now on?
The United States and Israel have broken Iran’s axis of resistance. It will be difficult for Tehran to remobilize it, with Hezbollah – a Shiite Islamist movement financed by Iran, considered a terrorist organization by many countries including the United States and members of the European Union – being largely decimated. . Since 2003, the risk of regime change has been a constant obsession for the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the fall of Bashar al-Assad will destabilize its inner circles. We feel a reaction of fear and Iran will therefore adopt a withdrawal posture to preserve its regime by all means.
Turkey, for its part, played a facilitating role by supporting the assault by some of these Islamists who arrived in Damascus. Certainly so that they would then leave him free rein in northern Syria to attack the Kurdish forces even more violently. Unlike the Assad regime which was not in favor of a dialogue with Ankara, because it had well understood the double game played by the president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Do you believe in the possibility of a democratic regime in Syria following the events?
The more fundamentalist factions always tend to gain the upper hand in a society that is otherwise very conservative. In Syria, there is no strong civil society to prevent what will undoubtedly constitute a drift towards authoritarianism. Society is bloodless, impoverished and dispossessed, therefore welcoming any “liberator” as he presents himself. However, in this case, we are talking about radical jihadist movements… Syria is probably moving towards an authoritarian diktat, which will no longer be that of Bashar al-Assad, more secular, but an Islamist, or even jihadist, diktat.
At the risk of reviving Islamist organizations around the world?
In the wake of what we call “liberation”, we are already witnessing a reaction within international jihadist circles – in the Middle East and beyond – who feel invigorated by this Syrian victory, knowing that jihad in Syria was a crucial focal point for the global jihadist nebula. HTS’s victory reinvigorates the cause of armed jihad and not just within the borders of Middle Eastern states, but on a transnational scale. Will the Islamic State be back tomorrow? A phase of great instability and violence is beginning in my opinion, with a power struggle to come to determine who will take control of the country. Syria is entering a new era, certainly, but it is far from being “liberated”.
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