Rebel forces are advancing in Syria towards the capture of Damascus. It is almost impossible for the current administration to turn the situation around any more, experts estimate.
20:01•Updated 20:59
A miracle should happen if the president of Syria Bashar al-Assad intends to remain in power, Middle East experts estimate.
In Syria, Islamist rebels are advancing towards Damascus. It was unclear Saturday night if the president had left town.
The goal is clear: the rebel forces aim to take over the country’s capital, says a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Toni Alaranta.
– They are trying to show the forces of the Syrian regime that no resistance should be maintained.
The end of Al-Assad’s regime seems to be near now.
– Miracles would have to happen now so that wouldn’t happen, Alaranta says.
Visiting senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Olli Ruohomäki is on the same lines.
– Some sort of beginning of the end may be at hand, if al-Assad does not get the situation turned around, he says.
The rebels advanced quickly
The rebel forces started a blitzkrieg this week. The rebels are led by the extremist Islamic organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Ruohomäki points out that the situation in Syria has progressed unexpectedly quickly.
– It means that al-Assad’s army units will apparently either defect to HTS or otherwise go into hiding. Nothing else explains the fact that al-Assad’s regime is collapsing at such a fast pace, says Ruohomäki.
– I believe that the word is going from one army unit to another that we are now starting to lose positions. Many a soldier may state that this was here.
According to Ruohomäki, it is difficult to assess whether the power in Syria will change within the next day or so.
– If the situation progresses at this rate, al-Assad’s regime will be on its last legs.
Why now?
According to Toni Alaranna, the main reason for the progress of the events is that the eyes of Syria’s most important allies, Russia and Iran, have now been directed elsewhere.
He considers the second most important reason to be that the rebel front is better equipped than before. It is capable of joint operations and has planned the attack for a long time.
The third reason is Syria’s poor economic situation. The salaries paid by the Syrian regime to the army have been small, which has eaten away at the soldiers’ motivation.
– There is no way we can go back to the situation where al-Assad is leading this country, says Alaranta.
How united is the rebel group?
The rebel front led by HTS is able to be united with strict discipline during the attack phase, but after the coup there may be clashes within the group, Alaranta estimates.
In addition to HTS, the rebels also include other groups, such as the Turkish-backed SNA group. Mutual power struggles and armed clashes have been typical of the rebel forces throughout the war.
– Maintaining unity and order after the power changes will undoubtedly be a challenge for the rebels, says Alaranta.
According to Alaranta, the Western powers should start thinking about how things will progress. The most important thing would be to get a peaceful change of power and start reconstruction in Syria.
– Syria remaining in chaos very likely means the emergence of some kind of extremist groups, unrest and various problems in neighboring areas, such as Turkey and Greece.