On the Old Continent, the majority of political leaders see the National Rally (RN) as a threat to democracy, but what about the other world powers? While outgoing President Emmanuel Macron will face his rival at the polls Marine Le Pen April 24 during the second round of the presidential election, the political event does not seem to attract attention on the planet, with a few exceptions.
In the front line, there are the countries which see the rise of the French extreme right as a possible key to understanding a more local situation: the United States with the former president donald trump and Brazil led by Jair Bolsonaro. “The Bolsonaro experience has aroused curiosity about the situation in France. I myself have been approached by Brazilian academics”, underlines to L’Express Bertrand Badie, professor emeritus of Universities at Sciences Po Paris. The one whom the Western press has given the nickname “tropical Trump” is one of those who could see Marine Le Pen’s victory with a good eye. In the fall of 2018, the Brazilian’s victory was hailed by the RN candidate.
Apart from Brazil, other countries are used to scrutinizing French politics. At the head of the pack: the States of North Africa. “The Maghreb fears to see Marine Le Pen in power. The distrust of this woman is palpable for the one who embodies a colonialist and racist past”, indicates the professor emeritus. Indeed, the former president of the RN made very firm remarks on immigration. To this is added a recent blunder: Monday, April 12, the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen had argued on France Inter that Habib Bourguiba “had banned the veil in Algeria”, confusing the former Algerian presidents Abdelaziz Bouteflika and Tunisian Habib Bourguiba . Note that in Morocco and Tunisia, French voters mainly voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise) with 40.2% of the 17,406 ballots cast, and 37.8% for Emmanuel Macron, according to the results released. by the French Embassy on Monday 11 April.
The African continent feels little concerned
In the French geopolitical fold, the African continent also represents a central piece. However, the countries of sub-Saharan Africa seem to be turning away from French political issues, according to Bertrand Badie: “Emmanuel Macron’s candidacy does not excite. In sub-Saharan Africa, what I have seen is quite extraordinary. Formerly , there was a form of natural support for post-Gaullist tutelage, it’s completely over. All they hope is that it won’t fall on them.” Swept away by the war in Ukraine, African issues were hardly mentioned during the presidential campaign. Hence the lack of interest shown by a section of the population for this election.
If no African president has officially shown his support for Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen is not wanted either. One thing is certain according to Bertrand Badie: “When they have intense cooperation with France, foreign countries do not like leaps into the unknown.” Whether in the Maghreb or in Africa, the election does not appear folded for all that. A few lines from the Senegalese daily bear witness to this. The sun : “Marine Le Pen’s result can be described as very good, given the competition from Eric Zemmour. The RN candidate does not appear weakened compared to 2017, on the contrary: she should even register new support before the second round.”
In the Arab world, only the country of the Cedars is passionate about the blue-white-red ballot. “Everything that happens in France interests, and often closely concerns, many Lebanese. Similarly, nothing that happens in Lebanon leaves most French people unmoved”, writes journalist Issa Goraieb in the Orient-the-Day, April 13. However, the small country retains a bitter taste from Emmanuel Macron’s visits in August and September 2020, after the tragic explosion in the port of Beirut. But her RN rival does not enjoy a better position since she is struggling to convince the Maronite community, despite her position of defending Eastern Christians. “Maronite Christians – from whom Lebanese President Michel Aoun comes – should instinctively feel close to Marine Le Pen, but there is suspicion and a form of concern”, decrypts Bertrand Badie. In February 2017, the head of the National Rally made a high-profile visit to Lebanon and was officially received by the head of state.
In the neighboring country, Israel, Emmanuel Macron could win the battle. During his five-year term, the head of state showed himself to be quite close to the Hebrew country. On March 20, 2022, the Elysée tenant went to Toulouse alongside Isaac Herzog, President of the State of Israel, to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the attacks in Toulouse and Montauban. “For her part, Marine Le Pen has this image of ‘suspicion of anti-Semitism’, linked to the French far right”, adds Bertrand Badie. In the Middle East, the only country that could welcome Marine Le Pen’s accession to power would be Syria, still in the hands of dictator Bashar al-Assad. The far-right presidential candidate has called for the resumption of France’s diplomatic relations with Syria, which the current president rejects.
Turkey more favorable to Macron?
At the gates of Europe, Turkey is watching the French political contest with a curious eye. Bertrand Badie says he was questioned by some Turkish journalists, proof of their interest in this aspect. For the specialist in international relations, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be more favorable to Emmanuel Macron. “If the two leaders have had difficult times, the Turkish head of state is too concerned about France’s image of Islam. I do not think he is delighted to read what is written under the pen of Marine Le Pen.” For the moment, no member of the presidential party, the AKP, has spoken on this subject.
Another geopolitical and demographic heavyweight, India seems to be losing interest in the election. “The French elections do not really make the headlines”, confides to L’Express the specialist Kamala Marius, lecturer in geography at the University of Bordeaux-Montaigne, who has just returned from this country. According to a post published on April 14 in the International mail, France does not enjoy a strong image in India. However, the Paris-New Delhi economic relationship seems to have been cemented over the five years, particularly in the military field, even if the Asian giant rather keeps its eyes riveted on Moscow.