In 2025, Nigerian Akinwumi Adesina will leave the African Development Bank (AfDB) after ten years at its head. His second term highlights the difficulties in realizing the continent’s economic potential. During the Africa investment forum in Rabat, he encouraged donors to act collectively by placing the AfDB as leader.
From our special correspondent in Rabat,
The 1er January, Akinwumi Adesina will begin the home stretch of his presidency at the African Development Bank (AfDB). At the end of May, the board of governors which brings together the shareholders of the ADB will meet in Abidjan to elect its successor. For now, the former Nigerian Minister of Agriculture, who is finishing his second term at the head of the institution, is still taking center stage at the Africa investment forum, organized this year in Rabat from December 4 to 6.
During the opening ceremony, in front of investors from all over the continent and beyond, in a bright blue suit, white shirt topped with his eternal bow tie, red for the occasion, he lists the opportunities offered by the continent. “ Africa’s food and agriculture market size will reach $1 trillion by 2030 and demand for infrastructure presents an investment opportunity of at least $170 billion per year “, he insists. The president recalls, on another level, the central role that the continent will play in the energy transition.
The DRC ahead of China and the United States
Africa concentrates 90% of platinum reserves, 60% of cobalt reserves and 30% of lithium. Citing Bloomberg, Akinwumi Adesina says developing a lithium-ion battery precursor factory in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could be three times cheaper than in the United States, China or Poland.
But nothing is happening at the moment: raw materials continue to leave the continent before being transformed. Their exploitation remains unavoidable, but it raises numerous environmental and social questions and its economic impact is not sufficient to make Africa take off.
Also readAkinwumi Adesina: “I want Africa to become the breadbasket of the world”
Akinwumi Adesina also notes that making the AfDB a bank that meets the challenges of the continent is not an easy task. Blame the consequences of the Covid pandemic, those of the war in Ukraine, which diverted international capital from the continent. The fault also lies in an often exaggerated perception of risk, which frightens investors and pushes the banker once again this year to call for the creation of an African rating agency to free itself from Moody’s and others.
Cleared by an audit in 2020
The President of the Bank is also paying for a second mandate snatched by forceps with the support of his country in the face of suspicious shareholders. Its governance, called into question by internal whistleblowers at the institution, was cleared by an audit in 2020, but after that its support became more discreet.
The bank’s disbursements reflect all these difficulties. They fell in 2021 and 2022, before starting to rise again last year (4.4 billion units of account), but remaining below the sums released between 2016 and 2018. “ The ADB remains too bureaucraticregrets the framework of an investment fund. It’s hard to work with your teams. » Akinwumi Adesina, who had set access to energy and agricultural production as priorities, admits himself that the progress to be made is still gigantic. Six hundred million Africans currently do not have electricity.
A historic vote
Certainly the historic capital increase (from 201 to 318 billion dollars) that he proposed was voted on last May during the annual meeting. It thus secured the triple A rating given to the ADB by the rating agencies. But this is an increase in the capital payable, that is to say, which the shareholders must make available to the bank if necessary. The Bank’s actual paid-up capital is in fact approximately just over $10 billion.
Also readIn 60 years, the AfDB has established itself as an essential development tool for Africa
And the commitments made in 2019 by shareholders to increase it have not yet all been met. “ We receive an additional $600 million released by our shareholders each year. And this until 2032 », Specifies Hassatou Diop N’Sele, the vice-president and financial director of the institution.
To compensate for the slowness of the process, Akinwumi Adesina innovated by issuing a bond in early 2024 (for an amount of $750 million), which was integrated into the capital. We are talking about hybrid capital. The operation attracted the interest of more than 270 investors and should be renewed. Each dollar makes it possible to mobilize 3 to 4 times this sum through partnerships, indicates Hassatou Diop N’Sele.
The AIF as a legacy
So in Rabat, Akinwumi Adesina does what he does best: promoting the action of the AfDB and the Africa Investment Forum (AIF). The event he created in 2018 is part of the legacy he wants to leave. There is no doubt in his mind that this platform, which brings together major donors and private investors (200 institutions for the 2024 edition) around flagship projects to be financed, must survive.
This year, 41 sessions will be organized to study files at different stages of progress: from the Lobito corridor between Angola, the DRC and Zambia, to the construction of a network of electrical lines in Mozambique structured under form of public-private partnership and supported by the Africa 50 fund.
Since its creation, the AIF has, according to the ADB’s count, made it possible to raise nearly $30 billion from various donors. On December 5, it was with Sace, the Italian export credit organization, and the Italian deposit and consignment fund, that the AfDB signed partnerships within the framework of the Matei plan for Africa, thus mobilizing several hundred million euros.
La Badea, new founding member
Akinwumi Adesina can also welcome the arrival this year of the Arab Development Bank for Africa (Badea) among the founding members of the AIF.
The event is also important for the president of Badea, Sidi Ould Tah. The former Mauritanian Minister of Economic Affairs figures prominently among Dr. Adesina’s potential successors. The two men also spoke face to face during the AIF. Sidi Ould Tah would have the support of Nigeria and Ivory Coast in particular. In ten years, with the support of the Gulf States, this economist has completely changed the face of his institution by increasing its capital and multiplying disbursements to reach 10 billion dollars over the last nine years. Cautiously, he has not yet formalized his candidacy. All must be done before January 31.
Facing him, the list of contenders has grown considerably since Abbas Mahamat Tolli, the former governor of the Central Bank of Central African States, revealed himself last January. There we find the former Senegalese minister and former VP of the AfDB Amadou Hott, the former South African VP of the AfDB Bajabulile Swazi Tshabalala, as well as the Zambian Samuel Munzele Maimbo, who spent his career at the World Bank . And more could still be announced in the coming weeks. Dr Adesina will then also have plenty of time to think about his next challenge. “ After that, what can get him up in the morning, other than becoming President of Nigeria? », speculates a West African business leader.