In case anyone missed it, it should be clear by now: France has entered an unprecedented political situation. And the question is whether President Macron can sort it out. He must now find a new prime minister who can be tolerated by the National Assembly.
It is certainly obvious that the president’s name is Macron, but the other political unrest surrounding the government in France coincides with the unclear situation in Germany, the engine of the EU. Or rather: the EU’s stuttering engine. Forget the sixteen years when “Mutti”, i.e. Angela Merkel, was Chancellor. It was somehow “the same thing” most of the time.
Mutti ruled and she won a number of elections that led to coalitions where Christian Democrats and Social Democrats ruled together. Euro crises, Russia’s invasion of Crimea, the flow of refugees and the nuclear disaster in Fukushima were dramatic events. But most of them struggled in Germany.
Trump has already realized his advantage
Now most things point to a new election on February 23 in the EU’s largest country. The Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, a man with very low numbers on the popularity scale, does not seem to be chancellor again. The liberal FDP broke the cooperation in the government, Germany’s economy is no longer what it used to be and the development with growing right-wing extremism with the AfD party is now something that every German politician needs to deal with.
Right-wing extremism did indeed grow during Merkel’s time as chancellor, but it is now in combination with a likely new election that it is particularly clear how unpredictable Germany has become.
A substantial minus for the entire EU
On January 20, Donald Trump takes over as president of the United States. As for the EU’s most important states, France and Germany, most things point to an unclear political situation in both countries at the time Trump takes the presidential oath. It’s probably not a big problem for the 47th president of the United States. But for Germany, France and the entire EU, it is a substantial minus.
Trump takes office when the war in Ukraine has almost been going on for three years and it is clear that the US no longer wants to pay. As early as this weekend, Trump will come to Paris to participate in the reopening of the newly renovated Notre Dame. At President Macron’s side, Trump may realize his advantage in relation to Europe’s most important countries where leadership is hardly set in stone. Or by the way, Trump has of course realized that a long time ago.