(Finance) – There are 8 “Outrageous Predictions” which could upset the economy and markets in 2025. The usual annual exercise of BG Saxo exploits the basics of “black swan” theory to select a series of high-impact events – very rare and unpredictable, but not impossible – capable of changing the course of the year. as happened with Brexit, expected in 2015, or the increase in value of cryptocurrencies in 2017, or the growth of investments in fossil fuels in 2022, at the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. For next year, BG SAXO dares with 8 hypothesis: from the dollar crisis to the fall of OPEC.
The dollar crisis
There re-election of Donald Trump could send the US dollar into crisis. The first black swan contemplates the hypothesis that the President, in his second term, decides to impose duties on all importswith the help of a Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE) run by Elon Musk, interrupting the supply of money necessary to keep the wheels of the global system turning, causing a collapse of the dollar and, at the same time, a rise of cryptocurrencies, but also of digital money, gold and the euro.
Nvidia doubles the value of Apple
Nvidia double the size of Apple – an unlikely but suggestive hypothesis – until it became the most profitable company of all time. According to BG Saxo the credit should go to a revolutionary chip of artificial intelligence, capable of increasing the performance of AI calculations up to 25 times with the same energy consumed. With soaring electricity costs for data centers, the innovative chip would take over the market and Nvidia shares they would be exchanged above $250.
China would bet everything on fiscal incentives
After creating the most epic debt bubble in history, the China bets on fiscal incentives: according to this forecast, in 2025, China could focus on reflation to manage inflationary risks with fiscal initiatives worth over CNY 50,000 billion (approximately 7,000 billion dollars), together with social policies that incentivize companies to reduce working hours to improve people’s quality of life.
The first 3D bio-printing of a human heart
A scientific breakthrough is the most optimistic black swan of 2025 capable of revolutionize the healthcare sector and attract new investments. The researchers – it is hypothesized – would use the advanced technology of 3D bioprinting to print a human heart fully functional: starting from high-resolution scans, scientists could create an elaborate digital model that captures every detail of the heart’s structure; then a cutting-edge 3D bioprinter, layering human stem cells and biodegradable materials, would build the artificial organ. A wave of innovation and investments would thus be able to redesign the healthcare sector and extend the lives of millions of people.
The electric boom and the end of OPEC
As battery prices fall, i electric vehicles they could always become cheaper leading to the oil market crisis. The fifth black swan therefore concerns the fall of OPECdue to the loss of centrality of petrol or diesel transport and the progressive reduction in importance of the cartel: with the exit of some key countries, the remaining members in the organization would increase production to secure a market share, causing the collapse of the price of crude oil.
A tax on data centers to offset high energy costs
Following the surge in electricity prices, the US could impose data center taxes on Big Tech for AI and fines for larger, energy-intensive data centers. This impossible scenario would open up new investments in the sector, including solar parks and power plants, while causing a new inflationary impulse caused by the increase in energy prices.
The collapse of the insurance industry and natural disasters
The seventh Prediction concerns one storm of colossal dimensionswhich could catch the insurance sector unprepared, to the point of causing the bankruptcy of a large company of the sector, guilty of having underestimated the risks linked to climate change. The US government would find itself ad face a crisis: save the insurance company, to prevent other companies from suffering the same fate and from triggering a wave of panic, even among consumers. The catastrophic event, however, would require insurance companies to review the prizes linked to natural disasters, with a profound reduction in home values in many markets.
The pound would make a comeback post-Brexit
The Last Black Swan is about the revival of the British pound: while the European economy is struggling, in the United Kingdom the new Labor government could initiate new fiscal policies to bring the national currency back to pre-Brexit values, rising to 1.27 against the euro. The encouragement of internal investments and the stronger growth prospects they would support the pound against the euro, pushing the exchange rate down to 0.7500.