While the Barnier government should be censored this Wednesday, December 4, several options are on the table to allow the country to benefit from a budget and avoid political and budgetary chaos.
Monday, December 2, Michel Barnier held his government accountable for the social security financing bill (PLFSS). A forceful passage which immediately triggered the filing of two motions of censure. One from the New Popular Front, the other from the National Rally. The two motions will be examined on Wednesday December 4 at 4 p.m. in the National Assembly. The vote should take place from 7 p.m., according to information collected by BFMTV. Without much surprise, the addition of left-wing and RN deputies will bring down Michel Barnier and his executive. 289 deputies are necessary to censor the government. The left, the RN and the “Ciottistes” bring together 316 to 319 elected officials, sufficient to achieve their ends. The flame party has already announced that it will vote on the motion of censure tabled by the NFP. The fate of Michel Barnier therefore seems sealed.
As a reminder, the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) and the finance bill (PLF) are two different things. If the two projects are presented at the same time, their nature differs. While the PLF sets the State budget for the coming year (expenditures and revenues), the PLFSS aims to control social and health expenditures and Social Security revenues. The preparation of this PLFSS falls within the competence of the government.
If one of the motions of censure tabled were to be adopted, the Prime Minister will have to resign and Emmanuel Macron will be forced to accept it. Since the president cannot dissolve the National Assembly less than a year after a previous dissolution, new legislative elections cannot be organized. A situation which could lead to real political and economic chaos.
Solutions for France to have a budget
The fall – if this is the case this Wednesday – of Michel Barnier could have serious consequences on the 2025 budget, currently being examined in Parliament and more broadly, on the functioning of the country. First, the examination of the finance bill (PLF) will stop. Direct consequence: it will be almost impossible for a new Prime Minister and a new government team to table a new budget before the end of the 2024 calendar year.
First option for the resigning government or the new government appointed, to use article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws (LOLF). It allows the country to function without a government and without a voted budget. This “joker” is based on a “special bill authorizing it to collect existing taxes”, until the vote on a next finance bill at the start of next year. In other words, by continuing to apply the 2024 Budget.
At the start of 2025, the resigning government could also use ordinances to enforce its budget. Please note, this option is only possible if the debates for the adoption of the finance bill (PLF) exceed 70 days. The provisions of the draft finance law may be brought into force by ordinance”, indicates article 47 of the Basic Law. This is the last constitutional hypothesis. The end of the constitutional deadline is set for December 21, 2024, this year This order has never been used in France. If censorship is passed, the country would then have a budget, but would not have a new government.
Another option on the table and not the least: article 16 of the Constitution giving Emmanuel Macron “full powers”, in theory, to impose his own budgetary decisions by decree. So, in fact, France could find itself purely without a budget in 2025. “The consequence could be very serious for the country (…) It is the absence of a budget, the absence of a finance law, or start with revenues from 2024, that is to say with a heavy deficit, an update which is not being done”, already warned the Minister of Justice Didier Migaud, last November 25 on France 2. In other words, it would be a status quo compared to the 2024 budget. The government recently counted on a public deficit reaching 6.1% of GDP this year, a target far from the initial ambition of 4.4% of GDP, or that of last spring (5 .1%).
“There is absolutely no risk of a shutdown” in the American style
What about the salaries of civil servants? “If you don’t have a budget for next year, that means that civil servants are not paid,” said the former Prime Minister and now Calvados MP, Elisabeth Borne, on the set of C à You, last October 24 during the promotion of his book. A notable release, which recalls a practice rather associated with the United States. Indeed, this situation is possible on the other side of the Atlantic. It is called “shut down” and consists of closing administrations if the American Congress does not agree on the vote on a budget. However, in France, the operation is not the same.
To get there, the text would have to be definitively rejected by both chambers of Parliament: the National Assembly and the Senate, at the same stage of the process, and during the same reading, which is very rare. Also, the Constitutional Council should validate a special bill which would allow the executive to collect taxes and pay a minimum volume of credits. The famous ordinances, mentioned above, could then make it possible to ensure the payment of civil servants’ remuneration. “There is absolutely no risk of a shutdown. There will be vital cards that will work, civil servants will be paid. We must get away from apocalyptic scenarios,” indicated Benjamin Morel, constitutional expert and lecturer in public law, in the columns of Europe 1, Monday December 2.