The National Rally has made its decision “barring a miracle”, concerning the vote on a motion of censure against Michel Barnier and his government. The Prime Minister could fall sooner than expected.
Will Michel Barnier’s government survive the week? The threat of a motion of censure still hangs over the executive with the examination of the 2025 finance bill. The tabling of such a motion could take place earlier than expected, at the time of the vote of the deputies on the Social Security Budget which was validated by the joint joint committee and a “probable” recourse to 49.3 according to the declarations of Michel Barnier, this Monday, December 2. Censorship could then be voted on as early as December 4. This, the second which would be filed against the Barnier government, would have a real chance of achieving one condition: the support of the National Rally (RN).
Precisely, on Sunday December 1, Marine Le Pen seemed to have made her decision concerning the future of the executive in place: “The government has expressed its wish not to modify the PLFSS, this is extremely clear and we have taken note of this ”, she declared to AFP In other words, she could censor Michel Barnier from the Social Security Budget Everything could therefore be decided this Monday afternoon, at 3 p.m., in the lower house. Parliament. Unless Michel. Barnier is once again giving ground to the RN on the famous “red lines” erected by the head of the party’s deputies with the flame “He has until Monday” to come forward, she declared, last Thursday. Problem, two. conditions set by Marine Le Pen have not yet been fulfilled by the Prime Minister, they concern the revaluation of retirement pensions and the reimbursement of medicines.
The decisive RN vote for a motion of censure
The rule is simple: for a motion of censure to succeed and overthrow the government, it must be adopted by the absolute majority of deputies sitting in the Assembly on the day of the vote, i.e. 289 if all elected officials are present. Already 192 deputies have planned to support, or even be at the origin of, a motion of censure: those of the four left-wing groups forming the New Popular Front (NFP) – La France insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party ( PS), the Ecologists and the French Communist Party (PCF). To these can be added all or part of the votes of the 23 Libertés, Indépendants, Overseas and Territories (Liot) deputies who also rejected and amended the government’s initial project on the 2025 budget. But these votes, which are not guaranteed, will not be sufficient for the success of a motion of censure.
Everything depends on the vote of the 124 elected representatives of the RN: if they come together in voting for the motion of censure then 316 votes in favor of the motion would be assured and would overthrow the government of Michel Barnier. A hypothesis which is becoming more and more probable. Marine Le Pen, leader of the RN deputies in the National Assembly, has “made her decision” regarding her vote on the motion of censure, assured BFMTV this Sunday, December 1. A decision taken after a meeting between the party boss and her inner circle to “determine the course of action to be taken and the consequences to be drawn from Minister Laurent Saint-Martin’s statements the day before,” specifies the media.
Indeed, on Saturday, the Minister of Public Accounts Laurent Saint-Martin indicated in the columns of Le Parisien that the text of the PLFSS was no longer subject to change. “They are fooling us. They would have to surprise me to change my mind and I don’t believe they are capable of it,” declared Marine Le Pen, describing Matignon’s declaration as a “masquerade”. “We will vote on the motion of censure with the New Popular Front,” assured the RN deputy, Jean-Philippe Tanguy, during a press conference on Wednesday, November 27.
A few days earlier, Marine Le Pen remarked that Michel Barnier was “sticking to his guns” while she listed “for the umpteenth time” the conditions set by her party to vote on the finance bill and not support a motion of censure. Among these red lines: the abandonment of the increase in taxes on electricity, the deindexation of pensions to inflation, the reduction in reimbursement of certain medicines and the exemption from employer contributions for low salaries. Since then, the Prime Minister has taken two steps towards the RN by announcing to renounce the increase in taxes on electricity and the end of the exemption from employer contributions.
Barnier seeking support, Macron “already consulting”
If the votes of elected officials are pledged to support a motion of censure, others are won over to the cause of Michel Barnier, essentially that of the “common base”. The deputies of the forces making up the government coalition should, barring surprises, support Michel Barnier: the macronists of Ensemble pour la République (EPR), the Republicans (LR), the elected representatives of Horzions, those of the Democratic Movement (MoDem). Which only makes 211 votes. To ensure he stays, the Prime Minister has no other choice to convince the far right not to censor him even by abstaining from voting.
But it is difficult to believe in such a hypothesis in the ranks of the right and the center. Emmanuel Macron himself, who leaves it to his Prime Minister to lead the debate and negotiations on the budget, anticipates his forced departure. “If it falls, who do we put behind it?”, Emmanuel Macron asked “a certain number of political leaders over the past 48 hours”, slipped a close friend of the Elysée and a high-ranking advisor to PoliticoSunday December 1st. In short, “the PR (President of the Republic, editor’s note) is already consulting”.
12:18 – No 49.3 or censorship? “It’s even the preferred option”
What if Michel Barnier didn’t use the 49.3? “At this stage, it is even the preferred option”, according to a heavyweight of the presidential framework with the Figaro. In this case, the National Assembly could then reject the bill: either by adopting a rejection motion at the initiative of the PS, or by an outright vote against the bill. Subsequently, however, it could be promulgated by ordinance. Enough to avoid a motion of censure, for the moment, and see the return of the bill to the Assembly for a next reading, Tuesday. A new reprieve for the tenant of Matignon.
On the other hand, spontaneous motions of censure could subsequently be tabled. The Insoumis still have a spontaneous motion, unlike the Socialists, who used their last joker after the appointment of Michel Barnier. A final option is not to proceed directly by order but rather by opening the way to dialogue. Proposing a new version of the text, why not with a few passages in agreement with the RN, could allow the government to save time and avoid the use of 49.3.
08:49 – Our “motion of censure is ready”, assures Sébastien Chenu
“We are going to table one (motion of censure), it is ready, signed. We know that the left through its eternal sectarianism will not vote for the motion of censure of the RN”, if 49.3 is drawn by Michel Barnier, indicates Sébastien Chenu , vice-president of the National Rally, at the microphone of BFMTV-RMC. At the same time, Sébastien Chenu also affirms that the flame party will indeed vote for a motion of censure initiated by the left. another option, if the head of government goes as far as the vote and does not trigger 49.3, “we will vote against”, assures Sébastien Chenu, but “all this will inevitably end with a 49.3”, according to the elected official from the North.
If the government falls, “Emmanuel Macron will have to draw conclusions,” he continues. He will then be able to appoint a new Prime Minister for “a new political line”. If it came from the left, the RN would automatically table a motion of censure, Sébastien Chenu already assures. “We can imagine that the President of the Republic could submit a referendum to the French on a major issue in our society”, namely immigration. Finally, if no scenario comes to fruition, “the option of Emmanuel Macron resigning arises”, indicates Sébastien Chenu.
08:31 – “Barring a last minute miracle”, the RN will vote for censorship
“The National Rally will activate the vote of censure mechanism, barring a last minute miracle,” said the president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella this Monday, December 2 on RTL. “If Michel Barnier were to review his copy by 3 p.m.”, the flame party could, on the other hand, change gear. “But I have little hope that he will be touched by grace given that we have been knowingly ignored and despised for several months,” he specifies.
And for the Social Security budget, the main issue of this day? “It’s folded,” for Jordan Bardella. “When the budget minister says ‘I will no longer move’, it is precisely that he considers and acknowledges the end of the negotiation cycle”, he judges. As a reminder, on Saturday, the Minister of Public Accounts Laurent Saint-Martin indicated in the columns of Le Parisien that the text of the PLFSS was no longer subject to change.