France is committing suicide. Its political class, incapable as a whole of caring about the general interest, threatens to bring down the government without any credible alternative solution. The Barnier government is not perfect, far from it, and, with notable exceptions like Guillaume Kasbarian and Bruno Retailleau, it is difficult to find courageous and forward-looking figures. But what do we want instead?
The program of economic and social destruction of the New Popular Front with, icing on the cake, anti-Semitic ministers in government? Or the adventurism of the National Rally? Marine Le Pen reminds us every day of seriousness and respectability but, when it comes to doing and no longer speaking, irresponsibility is king. Thus, the RN was ready to repeal the pension reform within the framework of a parliamentary niche of LFI. As for those who are calling for the resignation of the President of the Republic, they have a taste for reckless risk. It is not Antoine Pinay or Raymond Poincaré who can win the presidential election but Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Adding worse to worse is not the best way to restore order in the country.
For investors, we become a foil
Everyone needs to come to their senses. Our political disorders are already being paid for in hard cash. The spread of our 10-year interest rates with those of Germany has more than doubled since the dissolution, from 40 to 85 basis points. Worse, France now suffers from a positive gap with Spain, Portugal and even Greece. And yes: while these states have improved their financial situation, we have deteriorated ours.
This hierarchy of rates is all the more an anomaly as the French bond market is broad and deep. Large global institutional investors – banks, insurance companies, pension funds, etc. – would like French debt. If they are moving away from it to prefer that of the Mediterranean countries, it is because we are gradually becoming a pushback. Among the large countries of the euro zone, only Italy borrows at higher rates. But for how long knowing that our neighbor has a deficit 2 points lower than ours?
It is absolutely necessary that the Barnier budget be passed. Certainly, by ignoring the subject of reducing public spending and throwing a fiscal ball on the French economy that is far too heavy, it will damage activity. But this bad solution is much less serious than the absence of a budget or the appointment of a new government. Unfortunately, we are here. Ideally, the 2025 budget should be based on solid cuts in public spending, themselves based on a vast state reform plan.
Make way for intelligent radicalism
The Prime Minister seems to be saying that he does not have a mandate for profound changes. The argument does not hold up and the political news shows it since he finds himself in an inextricable situation with a tinkering which adds together bits of measures for which all the major parties could claim paternity: tax increases for the left, the establishment of waiting days for the right, the reform of state medical aid for the RN. We do not see how deeper changes, such as the implementation of a major departure plan in the public service, would have resulted in a worse political situation.
We must think about the future of the country, especially since the parties have become, to use Pascal Perrineau’s expression, simple clubs of elected officials, incapable of producing new ideas. To save France, it will be necessary to quickly implement a policy such as has never been pursued since 1958: drastic reduction in public spending, increase in VAT, elimination of thousands of administrative procedures, new act of decentralization, establishment pension funds… All this to restore France to its greatness and prosperity.
Be careful, we are at stake at this moment in our destiny. The time for intelligent radicalism has come.
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