How far away this winter of 2018 seems, when Emmanuel Macron could still lecture Mohammed ben Salman. Despite his imposing build, it is indeed the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, then aged 33, who is looking at his shoes in the middle of the G20 in Buenos Aires. “Don’t worry,” tries the heir to the Saudi throne. “Ah but I’m worried, I’m very worried,” replies the Frenchman. “You never listen to me!” We are two months after the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, and the international community is shocked by the parody of the trial which has just taken place in Riyadh. In front of cameras around the world, MBS appears physically isolated from his international partners, no one dares to approach him, apart from Vladimir Putin…
Six years later, the prince lost all radioactive character. Emmanuel Macron has long broken the Western embargo around visits to Saudi Arabia, imitated by Joe Biden (despite his promise to treat him “like the pariah he should be”) and all European leaders. MBS was even received with great fanfare in Brussels, at the European Council, on October 16. At dinner, the crown prince, despite his reputation as an introvert, appeared spontaneous, talkative, curious, to the great surprise of the political leaders around the table. They, for once, put down their cell phone screens to absorb the words of the young leader and listen to his vision of the world. In a few years, Covid-19, the war in Ukraine, those in Gaza and Lebanon, have reshuffled the cards on the international scene. And at the twilight of 2024, MBS emerges as the master of the game.
Being seen as a diplomat rather than a murderer
It is in this context that the French president is making a state visit to Saudi Arabia, from December 2 to 4. The objective: to strengthen commercial partnerships, particularly in the fields of culture, tourism and new technologies, but above all the diplomatic partnership. “Emmanuel Macron realizes that, in any case, MBS’s Saudi Arabia is unavoidable, says diplomat Bertrand Besancenot, former French ambassador to Qatar and Riyadh. For example, he himself tried to play mediator between the United States and Iran but he broke his nose on this issue Today, the President of the Republic sees clearly that Saudi Arabia is the only country that can play a role in a possible. deal between Washington and Tehran, and we, French, have every interest in joining forces with the Saudis.”
The Elysée now sees the Saudi prince as an element of stabilization in the Middle East, with a potentially central role for the future of Lebanon and in the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Gone is the impetuous young prince who went to war in Yemen or took the Lebanese Prime Minister hostage to force him to resign. His entourage promises it: the heir to the Saudi throne has changed and learned from his youthful mistakes. “MBS is carrying out a huge campaign to change his image, particularly in the United States, and to be seen more as a diplomat than as the alleged murderer of Jamal Khashoggi,” underlines Christopher Davidson, Gulf specialist at Durham University in the United Kingdom. He remains banned from visiting the United States, but it is not impossible that, if he succeeds in providing solutions to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, he will gain the image of a man of peace rather than of a man of war.”
In the region, the crown prince speaks to everyone: to his Gulf counterparts obviously, to the West, to the Chinese, to the Iranians since the rapprochement made in spring 2023, and even to Israel. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, scheduled for January 20, all eyes are on MBS, who actively supported the Republican president during his first term. Even after its defeat in 2020, the Saudi Fund invested $2 billion in the company of Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and the Trump Organization continued to do business in Saudi Arabia, notably in the field of golf. Just before the American election, the Republican candidate gave an interview to a Saudi channel, Al-Arabya, assuring that he would succeed in signing a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. “If I win, it will be an absolute priority, that everyone is at peace in the Middle East,” assured Donald Trump. Enough to shine the spotlight on the petromonarchy.
A condemnation of the “genocide” in Gaza
Behind the scenes, the Saudi kingdom does not rule out normalization with Israel in the medium term, but MBS has upped the ante: signing peace is out of the question without a Palestinian state in the balance. On this subject, he has in fact succeeded in taking leadership in the Arab-Muslim world. In recent months, the Saudis have encouraged Spain and Ireland to recognize the Palestinian state, and they have pledged to pay $60 million a month to the Palestinian Authority. “Mohammed Ben Salmane has considerably strengthened his stature as a leader internally and externally, believes Gulf specialist François-Aïssa Touazi. First within Saudi Arabia itself, where he was able to bring out Saudi national pride and enjoys very strong support from young people and women internationally, it has worked to diversify strategic partnerships, particularly with China and Russia, and wants to assume very clear leadership in the world. Arab-Muslim. The Islamic cooperation summit in Riyadh was, in this sense, particularly revealing of Saudi ambitions for the region.
Rather timid at the start of the war in Gaza, MBS has adopted another tone in recent weeks: at the summit of Islamic cooperation and the Arab League in early November in Riyadh, the Saudi leader condemned “the genocide committed by Israel against our Palestinian brothers. “Condemning and criticizing Israel is probably the last thing MBS wants to do, but he knows he has little other political choice,” says Christopher Davidson. “His own people want him to make these kinds of statements.” It is also a way to raise the stakes for possible normalization and to send a clear message to the Americans: Saudi Arabia will not sign so easily.
On Lebanon, French diplomacy hopes to obtain Saudi commitments for the reconstruction of the country, after having negotiated the ceasefire. “But the Saudis have been telling us for years that they no longer want to deal with Lebanon,” confides a diplomatic source. Hence the importance of this visit for Emmanuel Macron. “MBS does not have the sentimental attachment that his father or his elders have for Lebanon, on the other hand he knows that this file constitutes an element of the overall regional arrangement, points out Bertrand Besancenot. If there is a prospect of have a Lebanon less under the tutelage of Hezbollah [NDLR : et donc de l’Iran]it is clear that the Saudis are ready to make a gesture.” As such, the interpersonal skills of former minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, both special envoy of the French president on the Lebanese issue and responsible for the development of the Saudi city of Al-‘Ula, will be valuable.
At 39 years old, MBS above all understood that his country needed a peaceful region to develop its projects, grouped under the name “Vision 2030”. The prince is opening up his company and diversifying his economy at high speed, in anticipation of a near future with fewer oil resources. But its “megaprojects” are falling behind schedule and regional tensions are not helping matters: the Houthis in particular, the rebels from Yemen who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea since the start of the war in Gaza, are harming Saudi trade. Also, they are disrupting the construction of its huge projects in western Saudi Arabia, such as the futuristic city of Neom or the seaside resorts on the coast. “The only objective that matters to MBS today is the success of his Vision 2030, maintains François-Aïssa Touazi. He is focused on these issues and understood that it was essential to stabilize the region to attract foreign investment.”
Peace as the best way to do business. A vision particularly suited to the return of Donald Trump, and from which France could benefit.
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