While the RN had given the government until Monday to respond to its demands regarding the 2025 budget, Marine Le Pen is less categorical. She assures that “censorship is not inevitable”.
The bottom line:
- The Social Security budget will be debated on Monday in the Assembly, paving the way for a 49.3 from the government, then a vote of censure led by the left. The National Rally had given “red lines” to respect in order not to vote for censorship, which then seemed obvious, but Marine Le Pen assures that concessions from Michel Barnier could save her place at Matignon.
- Censorship still remains a possibility which will be drawn up by the left if the government uses 49.3. A situation which worries the government since this motion has a chance of passing with the votes of the RN.
- The deputies will meet again to debate and vote on the 2025 budget. Three votes will be organized, with three opportunities for the government to draw 49.3 and three possibilities for the left to vote on a motion of censure. December 2 for the Social Security budget, December 6 for the end of management law, or December 20 for the 2025 budget.
Live
09:27 – “We were very reasonable,” says Marine Le Pen
The government has made concessions to the RN, notably on the price of electricity and state medical aid, but the far right wants more so as not to vote for censorship. In her interview with the Tribune Dimanche, Marine Le Pen believes that the National Rally was “very reasonable”, ensuring that the measures serving as a “red line” requested by the party with the flame “represent only 10% of (their ) counter-budget”.
The leader of the RN deputies also returns to the government’s concession on the price of electricity: “It is nothing but a cancellation of tax, therefore in no case a ‘gift’ to the French. And in return, are we increasing the cost of the bar? That, for me, is Coluche: ‘Give me your watch and I’ll tell you the time.'”
08:23 – Marine Le Pen wants to “negotiate” with Michel Barnier
In an interview with La Tribune SundayMarine Le Pen returned to the conditions for the RN not to join the vote on the possible motion of censure from the left, in the event of 49.3 for the Social Security budget. “Censorship is not inevitable. It is enough for Michel Barnier to agree to negotiate,” asserts the leader of the RN in the Assembly. The far-right group has already given its “red lines” for the government to follow if it wants to avoid censorship, which will bring down the government in the event of your RN.
11/30/24 – 10:49 p.m. – A resignation from Emmanuel Macron would “not necessarily improve the situation with the blockage in the Assembly”
END OF LIVE – According to political scientist Benjamin Morel, at the microphone of BFMTVa resignation of Emmanuel Macron would “not necessarily improve the situation with the blockage of the Assembly, which is a structural blockage”. Indeed, “a newly elected president would not be able to redissolve the Assembly before July”, therefore maintaining the structural blockage.
30/11/24 – 22:01 – The Minister of the Budget, Laurent Saint-Martin, warns of the consequences of a failure on the budget vote
The Minister of the Budget, Laurent Saint-Martin, warns of the consequences of censorship in Parisianif no budget for 2025 is found. “If we renew the 2024 budget, […] 17 million households will pay [trop] tax. […] Long-awaited measures in favor of farmers cannot be put in place. There will be no extension of the zero-rate loan to the entire national territory to revive the housing sector. We will also have to put aside the new tax measures: taxation of share buybacks, contribution from large companies, contribution on very high incomes. And without PLFSS, the Social Security deficit would increase by more than 10 billion euros.”
To go further:
The Prime Minister, who regularly tells the media that he accepted his appointment without harboring any personal ambition, could give up his apron before the end of the year. For what ? Because the adoption of the 2025 budget does not find consensus among parliamentarians. Moreover, according to information from Le Parisien, even Emmanuel Macron confides behind the scenes that the “government will fall”, banking on censorship of the RN, “sooner than we think”. Information officially denied by the Elysée, but which spreads the rumor that the president is already preparing for the post-Barnier era.
It must be said that it is quite clear to everyone: Marine Le Pen is now aiming to bring down the government over the presentation of the budget. The president of the RN deputies, interviewed on RTL on November 20, had posed imperatives to Michel Barnier, demanding in a rather vague manner that the “purchasing power of the French be preserved”. This Monday, November 25, the noose tightened. Marine Le Pen spoke in the morning with the head of government and she did not seem to have obtained any guarantees: “Michel Barnier appeared to me at the same time to be courteous and firm in his positions. I repeated the lines reds of the RN”, she said, considering as very probable the hypothesis that the RN votes for the motion of censure in the event of the use of 49.3. “We will see if our words have gained ground, but nothing is less certain,” she said. “If the government persists and does not want to discuss, then this government will fall,” warned the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella, Wednesday November 27 at the microphone of BFMTV.
The president of the RN deputies now knows she is at the center of the game. But her demands are very numerous: “Tapping businesses and retirees is unacceptable, […] the increase of 6 billion that he is planning on the price of electricity is unacceptable for us”, she said. And his demands can give the government a cold sweat: the slightest impact on the power of purchase by the French would be considered a red line Given the 40 billion in savings – including measures on health reimbursements – and some 20 billion in taxes presented by the Bercy ministers, there seems to be no doubt. that the power purchasing power of the French will be reached. “It’s a red line. And if this red line is indeed crossed, well we will vote for censorship,” insisted Marine Le Pen.
Mr. Barnier confirmed in mid-November in the columns of Ouest-France that he would “probably” hold his government accountable by having recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution, which would allow adoption of the budget without a vote in Parliament. “The problem is not that of 49.3. The problem is what will be in the budget. Will Mr Barnier respect the commitment he made to ensure that the groups “Can the opposition recognize elements in its budget that seem essential to them?” asked Marine Le Pen on November 20.
What victory for Marine Le Pen?
Can the Prime Minister still convince Marine Le Pen in the coming days? To do this, it would be necessary to offer her pledges and some measures that she could present as a political victory. “He is spoiled for choice,” says at Politico political support from Michel Banier, who evokes the “very reasonable and quantified” counter-budget of the RN. According to information from BFMTV, the far right will decide during the budget vote in the Joint Committee (CMP), which will try to bring together deputies and senators after December 12.
The fact remains that Marine Le Pen can decide on the political future of the tenant of Matignon, but also on the way in which the next chapters of the political soap opera will be written. Michel Barnier’s ministers now have their eyes glued to the clock: it is likely that the Prime Minister will put an end to the debate, anticipating a blockage, by using article 49.3, undoubtedly at the end of the discussions in the CMP. And then he will no longer have control.
If the RN causes the fall of the government, it will most likely satisfy many voters and activists of its party, many of whom do not understand the RN’s tacit support for Michel Barnier. The political crisis caused could also serve the interests of Marine Le Pen, who would change political priorities at a time when her conviction for embezzlement of public funds is expected at the beginning of January.