In the past week, armed groups have taken about 50 towns and villages in Syria. Over 200 people have been killed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), including at least 20 civilians.
During Friday, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) claimed to be approaching Aleppo, and the Syrian military confirmed according to AP that fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of the city. At the same time, both Russian and Syrian bombers have attacked areas where the rebels have advanced.
Relations with Turkey
HTS is a breakaway branch of al-Qaeda, which, among other things, has been labeled a terrorist by the United States and the United Nations. The group is also listed as a terrorist by Turkey – but the Turkish government still has good connections to HTS, says Aron Lund.
– Turkey has many interests in Syria. It has tried to find ways to coexist with the Assad regime, which it previously wanted to overthrow. But no agreement has been reached yet.
Lund does not rule out that Turkey is to some extent behind it the entry into Aleppo.
– It could be that they just watched or that you were involved from the beginning, to try to put pressure on other actors and get benefits from it themselves.
Respite can be broken
The civil war in Syria has been raging since 2011, but in recent years the fighting has decreased in intensity. Millions of people have fled the country and the risk is that the fighting will now flare up again, with further refugee flows as a result.
At the same time, the situation in the Middle East is more tense than in many years. Israel has repeatedly attacked targets in Syria in parallel with the war in Gaza and Lebanon.
The recently introduced ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was therefore welcomed by many in Syria, says Aron Lund.
– But if it is immediately followed by a new war breaking out in northern Syria, you may not get the respite you need.
But who are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and what might happen now? Hear Aron Lund in the clip.