Is a power endowed, as they say of a country which possesses atomic weapons, invincible? Vladimir Putin is convinced of this, which motivates his regular threats on the use he could make of this weapon of mass destruction if Russia ever felt its integrity threatened. Bluff or reality? If no one, and especially not the Europeans on the front line, wants to test their determination in this matter, it is imperative to try to understand what this blackmail reveals about the reality of the war waged by the Russian dictator and measure the risks of slippage.
First of all, it is appropriate to recall the initial objective of the invasion of February 22, 2022: drive the elected Ukrainian government from power, impose the disarmament of the country and its political neutrality, integrate it into the Russian glacis alongside Belarus. to become another dominion of Moscow. This plan was defeated: Volodymyr Zelensky is still in power, only a quarter of Ukrainian territory has been conquered although Putin has committed the bulk of his armed forces to this conquest. In the absence of military success and notwithstanding the hundreds of thousands of deaths on both sides on the ground, the objective of Ukraine’s neutrality remains relevant in the mind of the former Kagebist.
What he was unable to obtain by force of arms, he now hopes to acquire through future negotiations. It is from this perspective that his nuclear blackmail should be understood. Its goal is to frighten Ukraine’s allies, mainly Western public opinion who fear an extension of the conflict, even leading to a globalized explosion. So he hopes that they will call for peace. Instilling fear is simply the continuation of war by other means, to paraphrase the famous formula of Clausewitz, the master of geostrategy.
Difficulties in renewing the battalions
The use of an experimental medium-range ballistic missile on the town of Dniepro on November 20 is part of this policy of intimidation, as is the modification of Russian nuclear doctrine which no longer prohibits striking targets. countries allied to Ukraine, even those with nuclear weapons. There can be no question of neglecting the threat – the bear at bay can prove dangerous – but we can also see it as proof of weakness after 1000 days of war. The Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Radoslaw Sikorski, even speaks of a “sign of despair” from a man who knows that he will not be able to win “his” war.
A conflict of this magnitude takes place both on the ground and behind the front, two inseparable aspects where Russia experiences problems, even worrying weaknesses for the continuation of hostilities. Calling on soldiers from North Korea – a bloodless country of 26 million inhabitants – when we are a large nation of 144 million citizens, measures the state of the human capital of the Russian army. According to the Ukrainians, the invader’s losses amounted to 750,000 men, dead and wounded combined. The estimate is probably exaggerated. A Russian Internet user, who scrupulously collects the publication of death notices and announcements of military burials throughout Russia, puts forward the figure of 78,000 named deaths. To this precise toll it is necessary to add the deceased soldiers left en masse on the ground, and the seriously injured.
Russian losses are in any case higher than those of the Ukrainian army, which is more concerned with the preservation of its men due to an unequal balance of power in terms of total population. The recruitment in prisons of soldiers for “single use”, according to the expression of the Russian authorities, the generous bonuses promised to volunteer recruits (13,000 euros to join the army, 2100 euros salary, attractive sums in a country where the average monthly income is 870 euros), the confiscation of the passports of men aged 18 to 30, likely to be mobilized, in order to prevent them from fleeing abroad, are as much indications of the difficulties experienced by the Russian army in renewing its battalions. Putin has even just signed a law intended to erase the debts of future employees, up to 92,000 euros, an offer also valid for spouses.
These recruitment problems are not the mark of a lack of patriotism of a population heated to white heat by propaganda with xenophobic overtones against the enemies of Russia, but the consequences of the conditions that the soldiers undergo under the flags, legacies of the Soviet period: bullying of all kinds (including rape of young conscripts), corruption at all levels, absurd orders going as far as the obligation to be killed under penalty of being shot, etc. Russian mothers have always been afraid of seeing their son go to the army. Desertions are massive, officers are shot dead by desperate soldiers, these “news” events are censored but circulate on the Web and by word of mouth.
Quantity over quality
The Russian army also suffers from a lack of weapons despite a hypertrophied military-industrial sector, another Soviet legacy. Calling on North Korea and Iran for shells and drones is not a sign of good military health. Construction defects, poor logistics, sloppy maintenance, explain among other things the failure of the February 2022 offensive despite the importance of the forces engaged. Corruption, again, is responsible when, at all levels of the industrial process, everyone pays themselves on the “beast”. Russia is in the bottom ranks of Transparency International’s annual ranking (141st out of 180 countries) which measures embezzlement of all kinds throughout the world. With nearly 9% of GDP devoted to the military budget in 2025 – a rate never reached since the fall of the USSR – Putin favors quantity rather than hoping for better quality of military equipment. It also counts on its Chinese ally, which supplies 70% of the machine tools and 90% of the electronic products necessary for the arms industry. The Putin/Xi Jinping good understanding is essentially based on this military alliance intended to impose their new world order, as both announced.
Without this aid, the Kremlin’s ambitions would be compromised. The same goes for the trade sanctions adopted by Western countries in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine. China, Turkey, India, among others, are helping Moscow find outlets for its oil production, the main source of income for the Kremlin. Concerning electronic components, these same countries, added to those of Central Asia and the Caucasus, serve as intermediaries to supply its military-industrial complex. If this complex largely escapes sanctions thanks to these embezzlements, the same is not true for the rest of the economy. Russia has little developed its manufacturing industry, as evidenced by the declining civil aeronautics sector. It also remains dependent on foreign countries for its consumer goods. Significant power cuts anger city dwellers, shortages of food products (eggs, butter in particular) force the population to relive the queues they experienced during the USSR. With almost 9% annual inflation, purchasing powers are eroding. All this undermines Russian morale. The country’s poor economic health is still measured by the key rate of 21% imposed by the central bank, making the credits necessary for investments even more expensive.
Impression of deja vu
Behind Vladimir Putin’s threats, Russia is doing badly, hence the dictator’s interest in ending this war as quickly as possible. Time is not on his side. It hits hard, literally with ever more intensive bombings, and figuratively with its putative nuclear threats. However, the outcome of this conflict does not depend on the battlefield. The Kremlin is waiting for Trump in the hope that he will impose a peace on kyiv favorable to its interests, at the risk of seeing Putin’s ambitions reinforced.
What we are experiencing gives a feeling of déjà vu. When the Soviet Union fell in 1991, the world was stunned to discover a regime in ruins, even though it had until then been considered the West’s number one enemy and its main threat. Today’s Russia is not in much better shape after having escaped bankruptcy thanks in part to investments by hated democracies. Emerging from the Soviet vestiges, Putin, as heir to the system, now seeks to reconquer part of the lost empire. If he is saved from his war of aggression by the gong of Justice of the Peace Trump, the temptation will be great for him to try to accomplish his imperial dream, to the detriment of an Old Continent which will no longer be able to count on the Peace America to protect itself.
* Journalist and specialist in communism, Thierry Wolton this year published The Return of Barbarian Times (Grasset).
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