Michel Barnier, who plans to use 49.3 to adopt the 2025 budget, must prepare to face a motion of censure, which is likely to succeed. The possibility of an overthrown government is envisaged even in macronie.
Michel Barnier’s government hopes to stay in place as long as possible, but it may not make it through the end-of-year holidays. The threat of a motion of censure hangs over the executive which has been trying for weeks to have its 2025 finance bill adopted. The text already rejected in the National Assembly – it was shunned by the left which was widely modified and then rejected by the government coalition – must be voted on in the Senate on December 12. Parliamentarians in the upper house, mainly from the right and the center, are expected to adopt the initial version of the bill. If adopted, Michel Barnier could rely on the support of part of Parliament to justify the use of 49.3 in the National Assembly and force the adoption of the text from mid-December.
But the use of 49.3 which is taking shape more and more precisely will undoubtedly call for a motion of censure. And this attempt to overthrow the government, which should be carried out by part of the opposition, surely the left, has a serious chance of succeeding on one condition: the support of the National Rally (RN).
The decisive RN vote for a motion of censure
The rule is simple: for a motion of censure to succeed and overthrow the government, it must be adopted by the absolute majority of deputies sitting in the Assembly on the day of the vote, i.e. 289 if all elected officials are present. Already 192 deputies have planned to support, or even be at the origin of, a motion of censure: those of the four left-wing groups forming the New Popular Front (NFP) – La France insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party ( PS), the Ecologists and the French Communist Party (PCF).
To these can be added all or part of the votes of the 23 Libertés, Indépendants, Overseas and Territories (Liot) deputies who also rejected and amended the government’s initial project on the 2025 budget. But these votes, which are not guaranteed, will not be sufficient for the success of a motion of censure.
Everything depends on the vote of the 124 elected representatives of the RN: if they come together in voting for the motion of censure then 316 votes in favor of the motion would be assured and would overthrow the government of Michel Barnier. A most probable hypothesis according to the declarations of Marine Le Pen on Monday November 25, after her meeting with the Prime Minister in Matignon. “If the budget remains as it is”, the RN will vote for censure, she reaffirmed. She also specified that she had listed “for the umpteenth time” the conditions set by her party to vote on the finance bill and not to support a motion of censure. Will it be heard? “Nothing is less certain,” she indicated, implying that it was more likely that the RN would oppose the government rather than advance on the same line as the latter which “sticks to its positions “. Marine Le Pen has still not made her decision and her position may still evolve, but many RN deputies have expressed their desire to vote for a motion of censure.
Michel Barnier looking for support
If the votes of elected officials are pledged to support a motion of censure, others are acquitted to the cause of Michel Barnier, essentially that of the “common base”. The deputies of the forces making up the government coalition should, barring surprises, support Michel Barnier: the macronists of Ensemble pour la République (EPR), the Republicans (LR), the elected representatives of Horzions, those of the Democratic Movement (MoDem). Which is only 211 votes. To ensure he stays, the Prime Minister has no other choice to convince the far right not to censor him even by abstaining from voting.
But it is difficult to believe in such a hypothesis in the ranks of the right and the center. Emmanuel Macron himself, who leaves it to his Prime Minister to lead the debate and negotiations on the budget, anticipates his forced departure. “The government will fall. [Marine Le Pen] will censor it at a given moment and sooner than we think”, he slipped to the tenors of his camp this Tuesday, November 26 after having decorated Elisabeth Borne, according to the indiscretions collected by The Parisian. An opinion which is shared by deputies, including this Macronist who seems convinced of the future: “Even we say that the budget is bad. So why wouldn’t Le Pen press the red button?”