With a potential resignation of Michel Barnier in December, the budget may not be voted on time, casting the shadow of budgetary “chaos” over the country in 2025.
Michel Barnier greatly threatened. The Prime Minister must give assurances to the RN to prevent the party from supporting a motion of censure against him without giving in to all the demands of the far right. This Monday, November 25, the tenant of Matignon received the president of the RN deputies in the National Assembly, Marine Le Pen. “I repeated for the umpteenth time what the red lines of the National Rally were,” she said on BFMTV after their interview.
She mentions in particular her refusal of an “increase in the electricity tax”, which she considers “inadmissible”.“We will see if today’s remarks catch on, but nothing is less certain,” she continues. Doubt over the vote on the motion of censure by the National Rally therefore still hangs over the heads of Michel Barnier and his government if the budget remains as it is.
“Do not plunge the country into chaos”
If Michel Barnier were to be overthrown, the fate of the budget would be uncertain to say the least, which would greatly worry the Minister of Justice, Didier Migaud: “The consequence could be very serious for the country (…) This is the “absence of budget, absence of finance law, or relying on 2024 revenues, that is to say with a heavy deficit, an update which is not being done”, warns the Minister of Justice this Monday on France 2 In other words, it would be a status quo in relation to the 2024 budget. The government recently counted on a public deficit reaching 6.1% of GDP this year, a target far from the initial ambition of 4.4% of GDP, or that of last spring (5.1%). A concern shared the day before, by the boss of MoDem, François Bayrou at the microphone of BFMTV. He fears a “crisis in political life, and there is nothing more desirable than to avoid it. The priority today is not to plunge the country into chaos,” he continues.
If a motion of censure were adopted, the Prime Minister would have to resign, and Emmanuel Macron would be forced to accept it. Since the president cannot dissolve the National Assembly less than a year after a previous dissolution, new legislative elections cannot be organized. The problem for the country would therefore be: how to form a new government to represent a budget, and who will it be composed of? A situation which could lead to real political and economic chaos.
Without a budget, a “special law” to run the country?
Article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws (LOLF) allows the country to operate without a government and without a voted budget. This “joker” is based on a “special bill authorizing it to collect existing taxes”, until the vote on a next finance bill at the start of next year. Please note, if the debates for the adoption of the finance bill exceed 70 days, “the provisions of the finance bill may be brought into force by ordinance”, indicates article 47 of the Basic Law. This is the last constitutional hypothesis. LCP recalls that the end of the constitutional deadline is set for December 21, 2024, this year. This ordinance has never been used. On the other hand, such an outcome would do nothing against a motion of censure. If censorship were passed, the country would have a budget, but would no longer have a government.
“If you don’t have a budget (…) civil servants don’t get paid”
What about the salaries of civil servants? “If you don’t have a budget for next year, that means that civil servants are not paid,” said the former Prime Minister and now Calvados MP, Elisabeth Borne, on the set of C to youon October 24 during the promotion of his book. A notable release, which recalls a practice rather associated with the United States. Indeed, this situation is possible on the other side of the Atlantic. It is called “shut down” and consists of closing administrations if the American Congress does not agree on the vote on a budget. However, in France, the operation is not the same.
To get there, the text would have to be definitively rejected by both chambers of Parliament: the National Assembly and the Senate, at the same stage of the process, and during the same reading, which is very rare. Also, the Constitutional Council should validate a special bill which would allow the executive to collect taxes and pay a minimum volume of credits. The famous ordinances, mentioned above, could then make it possible to ensure the payment of civil servants’ remuneration. This is why such a situation is almost impossible in France.
A technical government? The 3 options for after Barnier
The 2025 budget and the future of Michel Barnier at Matignon are closely linked. If the latter were to be censored, and therefore leave his post, what solutions would be available to Emmanuel Macron to ensure continuity? First, the head of state could decide to appoint a government of experts, called “technical”. This government would be made up of senior civil servants and/or specialists in their field. The name of Thierry Beaudet, president of the Economic and Social Environmental Council, had been circulating for a while to replace Gabriel Attal. Without great reform ambition on the political level, a technical government would make it possible to manage the country in a trans-partisan manner in an extremely unstable climate in the National Assembly.
Emmanuel Macron could also choose the left in power. But here the problem also comes from the left itself. If the New Popular Front won the last early legislative elections, the alliance has never been able to bring out a strong personality to propose to the head of state for the post of Prime Minister. The name of Lucie Castets was quickly dismissed by the president. In addition, relations between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the Socialist Party are tense to say the least.“The PS is looking for allies. But it will be without LFI”, indicated the rebellious leader on BFMTV, after the latest statements in the media from two big socialist fish this weekend:the boss of deputies Boris Vallaud and the mayor of Saint-Ouen, Karim Bouamrane. The first city wishes to “pick up the thread” of what “the NFP groups” “started to do in mid-August”, he said on France Inter this Sunday. An affront for Jean-Luc Mélenchon: “Alert. The PS is in the process of organizing a new common base with others in place of the New Popular Front.” An almost open war which should not reassure Emmanuel Macron, if the latter had considered the idea, even if it only a few seconds, to appoint a new left-wing Prime Minister.
If Michel Barnier is overthrown, the President of the Republic could reappoint him directly to Matignon. A maneuver used only once during the only motion of censure adopted under the Fifth Republic, in 1962. At the time, Charles de Gaulle had reappointed Georges Pompidou as head of government. If such a maneuver is technically possible, it goes against the spirit of the French Constitution. As a reminder, a “resigning government” can also postpone current affairs for several weeks, or even a few months, before the appointment of a new government team. Finally, a final scenario – which comes back on the table in the columns of certain media – is quite simply the resignation of the head of state, Emmanuel Macron.