Will Michel Barnier miss the budget march? Host this week of the heads of parliamentary groups, the Prime Minister begins his consultations with Marine Le Pen at 8:30 a.m., this Monday, November 25, in Matignon, while the National Rally, with its 123 deputies, threatens more and more openly to censor the government. Will be received on the same day, Stéphane Lenormand (Liot), Eric Ciotti (UDR) then Mathilde Panot (LFI), who intends to repeat to him “that he has no democratic legitimacy”. The Prime Minister will also welcome the socialists Boris Vallaud and Patrick Kanner and the ecologists Cyrielle Chatelain and Guillaume Gontard on Wednesday, then the communists André Chassaigne and Cécile Cukierman on Thursday. Those responsible for the “common base” (LR, Renaissance/EPR, MoDem, Horizons) will be received together on Tuesday morning, like every week.
The budgetary texts for 2025 will be on the menu of discussions, the Prime Minister’s entourage announced last week. “These discussions make it possible to identify the priorities of the different parliamentary groups in order to guarantee that the financial texts meet the expectations of citizens while ensuring budgetary sustainability,” Matignon was assured, specifying that “the objective is to ‘achieve a balance between the ambitions of the parliamentary groups and the imperatives of budgetary rigor.
The week therefore promises to be busy for the government. Tuesday, November 26, the Assembly will debate and vote on the Mercosur free trade treaty, against a backdrop of farmers’ anger. Ministers Annie Genevard and Sophie Primas will speak for the government. And on Thursday, a tense debate is announced in the hemicycle as part of a “niche” by La France insoumise on the repeal of the pension reform of the government of Elisabeth Borne, adopted in 2023.
But it is precisely on the budgetary level that the clouds are gathering over Matignon, the prospect of a triggering of article 49.3 fast approaching. Lacking a majority in the Assembly where, unlike Elisabeth Borne, he preferred to let the debates take place, Michel Barnier will “probably” use in the coming weeks this constitutional weapon, which allows the adoption of a text without a vote, except if a motion of censure were to overthrow the government.
Which would suppose that the RN adds its votes to a motion tabled by the left. While the far-right party abstained at the beginning of October during the vote on the motion of censure brought by the leftthe situation has changed in the space of a few months. And relations between the Prime Minister and the RN have been refreshed, with the far-right party accusing the head of government of ignoring it. “We waited, but for the moment, there is absolutely nothing in the text that corresponds to our expectations,” insisted Philippe Ballard, deputy for Oise RN, at the franceinfo microphone Sunday.
53% of French people want to see the government fall
This “coalition of opposites”, “I know that it is not what the French want, who today want stability, serenity”, said the Prime Minister on Thursday. Like Emmanuel Macron who from Argentina also said he wanted “stability”. But according to an Ipsos survey for La Tribune Sunday53% of French people want to see the government fall. And Michel Barnier’s rating falls in another Ifop poll for The JDDat 36% compared to 45% when he was appointed in early September.
What happens if the budget and government are overturned? In The Parisian, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon warns against “a Greek scenario” by pointing out the risk of a financial crisis. “There is no one responsible in the country who could wish for the fall of a government which was appointed two months ago,” adds François Bayrou on BFMTV. “If there was censorship, there would be a regime crisis,” said LR Agnès Evren on France 3.
“We must not scare the French for nothing”
But in opposition, the tone is less alarmist. “We must not scare the French for nothing”, reacted the vice-president of the RN Sébastien Chenu, referring to the adoption of a “special budgetary law” in the event of censorship. “The President of the Republic has several possibilities: reappoint the same Prime Minister, reappoint a new Prime Minister, resign if he no longer has any other solution, trigger a referendum,” listed the deputy from the North.
Three budgetary texts are likely to be submitted to 49.3. First, the Social Security budget. After a vote on the entire text on Tuesday in the Senate, a Joint Deputies-Senators Commission (CMP) should be convened on Wednesday. The governmental “common base” is in the majority. But the Macronists are threatening to derail it, with strong winds against the reduction in reductions in employer contributions on wages. A conclusive CMP would lead to a final vote in both chambers, with 49.3 likely in the Assembly. The state budget, then, which arrives in session on Monday in the Senate, with a solemn vote scheduled for December 12, prelude to the meeting of a CMP, then a final vote. The finance bill for the end of management for 2024, also: already rejected at first reading in the Assembly, it is examined Monday morning at the Palais du Luxembourg.