What if propaganda and disinformation coming from authoritarian regimes like Russia or China were less effective than is often feared? A study of the Descartes Foundation analyzed the penetration in France of the stories developed by the respective protagonists of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the crisis between China and Taiwan and the tensions between the Malian junta and France following the Serval and Barkhane. It shows that the French are very little sensitive to the Russian narrative which affirms that the attack on Ukraine was in reality aimed at defending itself against the enlargement of NATO, at protecting the Russian-speaking populations of Eastern Ukraine. and to fight against a neo-Nazi government.
In the same way, our compatriots are overwhelmingly resistant to the Chinese line which affirms that Taiwan constitutes an integral part of Chinese territory, that only Beijing is legitimate to decide the future of the island and that any Western support for the Taiwanese government would constitute interference in Chinese internal affairs. The conflict in the Middle East like the tensions between France and Mali are more divisive subjects, even if the French are more sensitive to the Israeli narrative than to that of Hamas, which presents the attacks of October 7, 2023 as an act of resistance that did not intentionally target civilians.
The Descartes Foundation study was carried out in August 2024 on 4,000 people making up a panel representative of the major metropolitan population. Respondents indicated their degree of agreement or disagreement with these different statements, making it possible to assess sensitivity to the different stories around these conflicts, but also the geopolitical perceptions of the French. Despite foreign information interference operations, well documented in both the Russian and Chinese cases, the investigation proves that these manipulations have so far failed to sway French public opinion in favor of the narratives they promote about the war. in Ukraine and on the status of Taiwan.
Less than 20% of people completely or somewhat agree with the idea that “Russia was forced to attack Ukraine to defend itself against enlargement of its NATO border”, while almost 80% of them completely or somewhat agree on the fact that “by fighting the Russian invader, Ukraine is exercising its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of a war of aggression which violates international law.
Regarding Taiwan, only 20% of French people support the assertion that the island is “historically Chinese and constitutes an integral part of Chinese territory”, and 10% that “only the Chinese government is legitimate to decide on the future of Taiwan. Conversely, nearly 80% completely or somewhat agree with the idea that “it is up to the Taiwanese people, and not the Chinese government, to decide freely and democratically the future of Taiwan.” . “The Russian and Chinese narratives on the conflict in Ukraine and Taiwan have relatively little breakthrough, while the French are much more receptive to the narrative of Ukraine and Taiwan” confirms Laurent Cordonier, research director of the Descartes Foundation. “But we observe that people who obtain more information on social networks than in traditional media, and in particular young people, are more receptive to it. However, we know that disinformation operations are carried out above all on social networks…” .
68% of French people think that Hamas is an Islamist terrorist group
On October 7, we see that support for the Hamas narrative remains in the minority in our country. Only a little more than 30% of respondents say they completely or somewhat agree with the idea that this attack carried out by the terrorist group represents “an act of resistance to Israeli oppression and settlement policy that suffered by the Palestinian people for decades. 45% believe that Israel’s military response following this attack constitutes a “genocide against the Palestinians”. But 70% of French people completely or somewhat agree with the statement according to which “during the attack of October 7, 2023, members of Palestinian Hamas deliberately committed a great deal of physical and sexual violence against Israeli civilians “. And nearly 68% of them defend the idea “that if Hamas defines itself as a Palestinian resistance movement, it is in reality an Islamist terrorist group which wants the destruction of the State of Israel “.
Unsurprisingly, the more the French respondents show themselves to be sensitive to the Russian story, the more they tend to be also to the Hamas, Malian and Chinese stories, and the less they tend to be to the Ukrainian, Israeli, French and Taiwanese stories. . Political orientation plays a role in views of these conflicts. “People who say they are close to the extreme left as well as the extreme right are more sensitive than the rest of the population to the Russian and Chinese narratives. On the other hand, if the extreme left is more sensitive to the Hamas narrative as well as to the the Malian junta, this is not the case for the extreme right” notes Laurent Cordonier. The study also confirms the work of researcher David Chavalarias that climate skepticism and opposition to vaccines are correlated with greater adherence to the Russian and Chinese narratives. “People who are more sensitive to these Russian or Chinese stories will be less likely to believe in climate change and more likely to consider that there is a conspiracy around vaccines. We find a universe of anti-everything thought” underlines Laurent Cordonier.
Isolationism and trust in NATO
The overwhelming support for Ukraine and Taiwan does not mean, however, that the French are ready to involve their country in defending these territories. Only 21% would be in favor of sending soldiers to Ukraine to fight against Russian troops, as Emmanuel Macron had suggested. And if China attacked Taiwan militarily, less than 17% would be in favor of a military commitment by France to defend the island. 56.5% of French people, on the other hand, would be in favor of diplomatic support for Taiwan and a firm condemnation of the Chinese invasion. Relatively isolationist positions which are partly explained by the lack of confidence in France’s military capabilities. Only 20% of French people think that their country would be capable of defending itself militarily if it were attacked by a foreign power, such as Russia. At the same time, only a little more than a third (34.7%) believe that their country should increase its military defense spending. Salvation for them comes through Europe and NATO. 61% of French people are in favor of a common defense in the European Union, and 66.5%, if they had the possibility, would vote for France to remain a member of NATO, compared to only 14.6% who would opt for a withdrawal. Proof of confidence in the Atlantic Alliance, 74% of those questioned think that if France were attacked, NATO would respect its commitment to help our country.
Informational interference from Russia or China therefore does not upset the French’s perception of these authoritarian regimes. Less than 14% of them have a positive image of Russia, and less than 20% of China. On the other hand, Laurent Cordonier recalls that these are not the only objectives of foreign manipulations, which also seek to polarize Western public opinions on questions of society or internal politics: “When we think, for example, of the Stars of David tagged on the walls of Paris, then posted on social networks, the idea was not to send a specific message, but to press on existing fractures in order to weaken liberal democracies. Authoritarian regimes want to target what they can. appear be weaknesses of democracies.”
It is up to the French public authorities to grasp the exact extent of the threat, so as not to let themselves be destabilized by foreign interference, but without abandoning our liberal principles. “Overreacting, for example by adopting measures too severely restricting freedom of expression online or by completely making certain points of view on international news invisible in the media, would amount to damaging democratic life by seeking to protect it” concludes Laurent Shoemaker.