Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s defense lines. However, the approaching winter will bring inevitable changes to the course of the battles, says Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkö.
The nature of the fighting in Ukraine has continued to be similar throughout the year: Russia seeks to advance at any cost, Ukraine defends its positions as best as it can.
However, winter conditions bring changes to the course of battles, docent of military sciences Ilmari Käihkö evaluate.
The US president who will start his second term in January is also likely to affect the warfare Donald Trumpwho has promised a quick end to the war in Ukraine.
Käihkö believes that both Ukraine and Russia sense that the end of the war is now closer than ever before.
It may paradoxically accelerate hostilities, as both sides seek to ensure the best possible settings for possible peace negotiations.
This week, Ukraine began striking Russia with long-range missiles. Russia responded by launching a multi-head ballistic missile into Ukraine for the first time.
According to Käihkö, Russia currently has the advantage, but its ability to sustain attacks is unknown.
– Now we are already on such rounds that not even Russia can continue this forever. However, Russia hopes that Ukraine will run out of resources first.
There is no big breakthrough in sight
The main focus of the fighting is still in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine and the Kursk region in Russia.
– The situation in the regions is still difficult for Ukraine. Russia is advancing slowly and with terrible losses, but in any case it is advancing.
According to Käihkö, there are currently no signs of a widespread breach of Ukraine’s defense lines.
Russia’s last significant breakthrough was seen in February, when Russia managed to capture the city of Avdijivka after months of fighting.
Even if Russia achieves a new breakthrough during the winter, according to Käihkö, it may not be able to take advantage of its opportunity in the way it would like.
– In almost three years, we have noticed how difficult the attacks against prepared defense positions are. Now that Russia has moved more and more to infantry attacks, progress is also slowing down.
President of the United States Joe Biden this week gave Ukraine permission to use anti-personnel mines. The rapid introduction of mines can make it even more difficult for Russia to advance, says Käihkö.
Winter makes fighting more miserable
In the midst of intense fighting, winter is making its return to Ukraine. It will inevitably also affect the battles at the front, says Käihkö.
– Yes, it affects Russian infantry attacks in particular. If it snows a lot, it’s really hard to walk.
The so-called frost period, when the ground is not yet frozen, makes it more difficult for heavy vehicles to move forward.
– Winter makes warfare more difficult and simply makes it more miserable.
Cold weather, snow, low-lying clouds and darkness will in turn make it difficult to fly drones. According to Käihkö, this affects Ukraine in particular, which is more dependent on its drones than Russia.
Despite the winter conditions, Käihkö believes that the long-lasting dynamics of the war will remain.
– The most likely thing is that this will continue. Russia tries to maintain as fast a pace as possible and advance.
Russia, for example, is under great pressure to regain control of the entire Kursk region before possible peace negotiations begin, Käihkö states.