What is the strategy of a National Rally (RN) deputy? That of Marine Le Pen. These elected officials are not in the Assembly to plot tactical coups, but to carry out the orders of their boss. What is she thinking? Elected officials from all sides are lost in hypotheses to identify the intentions of the former presidential election candidate towards Michel Barnier. The head of the RN deputies threatens to censor the young government at the end of the budget debates. She rattles off a string of grievances against the Savoyard, immediately relayed by his flock. His training would be neither respected nor listened to. Marine Le Pen theorized her nuclear doctrine. She will give her thumbs down if “the purchasing power of the French is reduced”. It will be in essence, given the sixty billion euros in savings sought by the government.
Nobody dissects the finance bill to understand the game of Marine Le Pen. Rather, we attempt to identify its interest in joining its voices to the left against the negotiator of Brexit. “It’s hard to know what’s going on in a person’s head,” smiles a member of the Republican Right (DR). And when this person is threatened with ineligibility, the mission becomes impossible.
In the head of Marine Le Pen
So, it phosphorus. Ministers and deputies carry out the same demonstrations at will, all reversible. Cameras and microphones are all injunctions to become forecasters. The media exegesis each frontist threat, helping to solemnize the choice of Marine Le Pen. Let’s summarize. His electorate is angry with the government. Yes, but wealthier voters – the RN’s land of conquest – are thirsty for stability. The RN cannot be an agent of institutional chaos, but must strengthen its status as an opponent. And this trial of the parliamentary assistants? Will he encourage her to throw everything away or calm things down? It is not said that she knows it herself. In December 2023, its strategy when examining the immigration text was decided at the last minute. The political life of November is not that of December. Even his ally Eric Ciotti portrayed a “hesitant” woman to an elected LR. “Marine Le Pen is a woman who does not say what she does and who does not do what she says,” analyzes a Renaissance leader.
The executive awaits the verdict. Already, Bercy has started to work on the dark scenario of a motion of censure to provide a budget to France. The executive couple has little control over Marine Le Pen. A simple meeting with Michel Barnier on Monday, November 25, will not move mountains. The Prime Minister says he is “ready” to be overthrown. “I know that this is not what the French want, who today want stability, serenity,” he said Thursday, November 21 before the 106th Congress of Mayors. On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Emmanuel Macron said the day before he wanted “stability”.
Fear of parliamentary paralysis
Is this “stability” a means or an end in itself? Michel Barnier leans towards the first option. He promises to present at the start of next year “around fifty” measures which will be “started” within three years. The examination of the text on the end of life must resume its course, a bill on immigration is expected to transpose the European pact on migration and asylum. The Prime Minister, careful not to be the man of current affairs, describes this ambition as a “horizon line”.
This ardor does not dissipate the fog. The government coalition shows its fragility every day. There are these presidential ambitions, obstacles to working together. These resentments of the Macronists towards Michel Barnier, accused of destroying their heritage. “I only support the government for reasons of stability,” said an Ensemble pour la République (EPR) deputy. “But I sometimes say to myself that another Prime Minister might be worth it.” Ideological differences between the right and the “central bloc” are observed, due to the lack of a negotiated project upstream. The first stiffened its regal positions and softened its liberal DNA. Many MPs fear that the “stability” touted by the executive is the false nose of parliamentary paralysis. “I anticipate weak legislative activity, with a presidential election which will begin early,” anticipates an EPR deputy. A prediction, again. One certainty: whatever Marine Le Pen’s choice, a leap into the unknown is planned.
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