Nuclear weapons doctrine updated – threshold lowered • “Crimea is probably negotiable”
One by one, Russian President Vladimir Putin has crossed red lines without any major consequences.
The last time it happened, however, the Kremlin chose to mark with an intercontinental robot, and with an updated nuclear doctrine, fears of Russia resorting to tactical nuclear weapons have increased.
– Det is possibly what Putin might resort to if Russia is threatened by an invasion, says Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius.
No MIG29 planes. No threats to Russian borders. No foreign missiles against Russian territory.
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s so-called red lines have been violated several times. This week it happened again, when the US gave the green light to Ukraine to use US long-range robots against targets in Russia.
– In the first place, there have been no resources to respond to the threats. Many of the threats have been for domestic consumption, says Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius in Nyhetsmorgon.
Answered by intercontinental robot
Violations of Putin’s red lines have mostly been met with anger and gunfire from the Kremlin. However, after the American announcement about long-range robots, Russia chose to mark by firing an intercontinental robot towards Dnipro.
According to Malcolm Dixelius, in this way Putin wanted to tell Europe that it has weapons that can reach as far as Great Britain.
– Then you have still shown that you have done something.
Also relevant is that Russia recently updated its nuclear weapons doctrine. In the new doctrine, the threshold for when it is legitimate to use nuclear weapons has been lowered, among other things.
“Then Russia will act in desperation”
Although the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons has been lowered, the threshold remains high. According to Malcolm Dixelius, however, there is a risk that Russia will be tempted to resort to tactical nuclear weapons, also called battlefield nuclear weapons, in a tight situation.
– This lower level of nuclear weapons has never been used operationally, so you don’t know how they work in war. I don’t think the Russian military has a very big appetite for this, but it is possibly what Putin might resort to if Russia is threatened with an invasion.
Is Crimea the border?
– I don’t think it’s enough. Crimea is probably even negotiable. Rather, I think it is if a foreign power shows intent to move towards Russia’s heartland. Then Russia will act in desperation, especially under a leader like Putin.