(Finance) – In addition to having to cope with the heavy increase in the prices of raw materials, Italian companies will also have to face the search for new destinations for their products. Russia – as it emerges from the report on the exposure to the Russian market of the Italian local economies produced by Prometeia based on the Istat data relating to exports of the Italian regions in the fourth quarter of 2021 – represents 1.8% of exports for Italy, which are equivalent to almost 7.7 billion euros. THE most exposed sectors they are clothing items, where the Russian market accounts for 3.9% of exports with over 734 million euros; the manufacture of other general purpose machines (2.9% of exports, 678 million euros); and furniture which shows a significant exposure to the Russian market of 3%.
The direct impact of sanctions on Russia, on Italian exports, it is, however, modest overall. The block – according to the recent Confindustria’s forecast report on the Italian economy – it concerns 686 million euros of sales in Russia, equal to 8.9% of Italian exports to the country. But what worries – Confindustria highlights – is that there are some specific Italian products (for example some machinery) for which the weight of the Russian market exceeds 10%. Italian exports will suffer a heavy slowdown in 2022 (+ 2.8%), after the excellent 2021. For this year, the growth of both exports and imports is revised downwards by about 5 points compared to the scenario of the Confindustria Study Center in October.
“There is a polarization of the activities that are damaged by the crisis with Russia. The impact – he explains Nunzio Bevilacqua, business lawyer and international trade expert – focuses on certain sectors, among which fashion and luxury certainly stand out, typical goods of Made in Italy. Here the damage is not only substantiated in the closure of the shops that sell our products in Russia but also in the decrease in purchases abroad of these goods deriving from the lack of circulation of Russian tourism “.
Analyzing the data at a territorial level, Prometeia highlights how in Emilia Romagna and in Umbriathe fashion industry is the industry most exposed to the Russian market. In particular, in Umbria, the fashion sector exports 48 million euros to Russia, representing 15% of Umbrian clothing exports. The Marche show their greatest exposure to the Russian market in the footwear sector, where exports reach 81.6 million euros and represent 8% of the sector’s exports. In Calabria, on the other hand, exports to Russia of other general purpose machines account for about 3.2 million euros and account for 47% of total sectoral exports.
But in this scenario an even greater impact is looming for Italian companies. “The risk is that the Chinawhich has not yet taken a unambiguous position towards the Ukrainian situation, – underlines Drink water – can move towards the creation of a more defined axis with Russia. If this were to happen, the same Italian companies working in China could suffer consequences, of no small importance, including that of being subject to repercussions by the Chinese state which would see them no longer ‘friendly’. Furthermore, problems would arise regarding the exit from the country of goods produced in China. This scenario has led several companies working on site, albeit not yet touched by imminent problems, to review their strategic plans. Chinese support for Russia would represent ‘a commercial nuclear explosion’ and several companies are already thinking about exit strategies “.
According to the expert, in view of the diversification towards which we must address, Latin America and in particular the Brazil are the countries to look to. “Among the new scenarios that are opening up for Italian companies is Latin America and in particular the Brazilian market. Brazil – continues Drink water – has a system that allows investments in various commodity activities. The same lends a considerable welcome to Italian investment and Italy has the ability to penetrate the market with various commercial activities. Brazil is certainly a country where there is great potential but also a more than regular stability that allows companies to think about medium and long-term investments. Regardless of the alternation of governments that may exist in Brazil, the country maintains an excellent balance between more than regular stability and return on investment. The presence of a currency that is not yet highly appreciated can allow Italian companies to make a good investment while also taking advantage of the currency strength of the euro. One of the sectors where there are excellent investment opportunities is certainly agribusiness, a strategic sector for Brazil that includes everything related to efficiency in agriculture. In particular, the special economic zone of Manaus, which has also attracted US companies, could also be interesting for local companies. In Brazil there is also a need for new technological, road, port and airport infrastructures. The country is also of interest for the tourism sector, today also conceived in an environmentally friendly way, and for renewable energy with efficiency, production and distribution projects. There is also an important presence of Enel, recognized as one of the most qualified and best accepted foreign companies in the country. Regardless of how the political scenario will change next autumn – concludes the expert – Brazil continues to offer a great agenda of armored investments within 10 years “.