The German Minister of Defense and the Swedish Minister of Civil Defense estimated this Tuesday that a “ sabotage » was certainly the cause of the damage observed on two telecommunications cables passing in the Baltic Sea. In a joint statement, they spoke of the “ hybrid warfare » and the Russian threat. And say to themselves “ deeply concerned » of the destruction of these information highways linking Finland and Germany on the one hand, Sweden and Lithuania on the other.
We wrongly think that our mobiles, computers and other connected computing machines are connected to each other via satellite connections, radio waves, or even WiFi. But whether they are in the general public domain or to ensure the activities of any company in the world, almost all of our electronic communications, including our voice exchanges by mobiles, depend 99% on submarine cables.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the destruction attributable to Moscow against submarine cables has increased. The thesis of a new ” sabotage » perpetrated by Russia would be more than likely, according to the German Defense Minister.
These destructions coincide with the exercise NATO’s Freezing Winds-2024which began in the Gulf of Finland and at the Dragsvík training ground in southern Finland. But the thesis of a retaliatory action after the authorization of the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine is also possible. In both cases, Moscow is suspected of having sabotaged these submarine cables, believes Serge Besanger, Professor at the Higher School of Foreign Trade in Paris and Lyon:
“ The problem that happened in recent days with the attacks on submarine cables in the Baltic is that the Swedish Navy was not in its exclusive economic zone and it is in the European Economic Zone (EEZ) that the Russians went looking for these cables. Unfortunately, there were no Finnish patrol boats at the time either. As a result, two communications cables were cut. As a result of these sabotages, cybersecurity experts noted a drop in internet traffic of around 40% in Lithuania, for example. Fortunately, other optical cables in the region were used to re-route data traffic. But let us note in passing that 40% less traffic is still quite revealing of the harmful power of these destructions! Furthermore, maritime surveillance systems managed to geolocate Russian or Chinese boats which were in the region at the time of the incident, thus making it possible to pinpoint, a priori, the culprit. These sabotage actions are undoubtedly a “calibrated” response, in inverted commas, to the authorization which was given to the Ukrainians to use long-range missiles to extend their counter-offensive capabilities. Repairing the cables will not be a problem, it will take 6 to 10 days maximum. »
Several incidents of the same type in recent months
And each time, the authorities of the Nordic countries note that “ fishing boats » in quotation marks or Chinese vessels chartered by the Russians, crisscrossed the maritime zone in which the cables were located. Normally, in order to dissuade these boats from acting, patrol boats and frigates are sent to the site. But the fleets, which are mainly French and those less important from other European countries, are currently undernumbered.
Furthermore, the budget reductions decided by Europe more than 15 years ago did not make it possible to maintain their full possibility of intervention. Of the European funding to build new ones were voted on recently, but these buildings will only be operational in 2026 or 2027.