(Finance) – Kepler Cheuvreux confirmed the target price (to 4.50 euros per share) and the recommendation (to Buy) on EQUITA Groupindependent investment bank listed on Euronext STAR Milan, after the 9-month accounts.
Analysts have revised estimates for 2024-26reducing fiscal 2024 revenue guidance by 3.5%, leaving fiscal 2025 essentially unchanged, and increasing fiscal 2026 by 2%. The revision primarily reflects weaker-than-expected performance in the Investment Banking division, where ECM failed to recover, and the delay of two large investment deals BUT see you next year. Furthermore, the division Alternative Asset Management will see its second fundraising postponed to 2025, delaying the equalization fee.
From the 2025 onwards, Kepler predicts a strong recovery in Investment Bankingsupported by good management visibility, which should drive margin expansion, given the division’s operating leverage.
Despite estimate revisions, Kepler maintains the DPS for 2024 at 0.35 euros. We continue the model, offsetting the cuts in estimates and reiterates TP and Buy ratings, supported by best-in-class dividend distribution of the company.