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fullscreen Test firing of the American long-range ATACMS robot. Photo: AP
US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use long-range robots against targets in Russia – and the Russians are warning that this could lead to a third world war.
In five points, we explain the background and what may happen in the future.
1. Long-range robots
Long-range robots can attack targets far into “enemy country”.
They usually have a range of 30–55 miles.
With the help of long-range robots, you can knock out important strategic targets without having to go in with ground troops.
2. Why haven’t they been used before?
For several months, Ukraine has been pleading to use long-range robots to better defend itself – by attacking air bases and other military infrastructure in Russia.
However, due to fear of Russia’s possible reaction, the NATO countries have slowed down Ukraine and have not agreed to their wish.
Russia has been using tough rhetoric and warned that NATO involvement could lead to another world war.
3. Were assigned the weapons – with restrictions
The so-called Atacms robots have a range of up to 30 miles.
Several Western countries have supplied Ukraine with these weapons, but they have not been allowed to use them in cross-border attacks – only allowed to use the weapons against targets on occupied land.
This has meant that Ukraine has not been able to strike at locations from where Russia has launched robots – and they have instead been forced to wait for a robot to reach Ukrainian territory before being able to shoot it down.
In May 2024, the restriction was relaxed slightly when the United States secretly allowed Ukraine to use American weapons for defense purposes at the Kharkiv border area.
4. Biden’s Endorsement – Controversial Decision
With only two months left in the presidency, Joe Biden chose to authorize Ukraine’s use of long-range drones against targets deep inside Russia for the first time. However, the decision has not been officially confirmed by the White House yet.
Some Pentagon officials opposed Biden’s decision because they fear that Putin could expand the war as a result, write New York Times.
Others have worried about how Ukraine will be able to withstand Russian warfare without this option.
The fact that Russia placed thousands of North Korean soldiers in Kursk has raised concerns among Biden and his advisers. They suspect that the backing from North Korea could lead to a dangerous new phase in the war.
The American long-range robots are intended to help Ukraine defend the Kursk region for as long as possible.
5. What can happen now?
According to military expert Joakim Paasikivi, this opportunity for Ukraine will have a military effect. The so-called Atacms robots have a range of up to 30 miles. They could give Ukraine the ability to attack, for example, airfields and logistical bases inside Russia.
Paasakivi assesses that the weapons will probably be used against Russian and North Korean units in the Kursk region in western Russia.
Sources to Reuters state that Ukraine is now planning a first attack with the new weapons in the coming days. According to Russian politicians, Biden’s decision means a “serious escalation” that could lead to a third world war.
Paasikivi does not believe in the Russian threats. He believes that the rhetoric has been similar several times before.
The military analyst Johan Norberg also makes a similar assessment.
– Russia will always threaten, because they know it goes home, says Norberg to TT.
If it turns out that Ukraine receives a sufficient amount of robots, it could complicate the Kursk offensive for Russia.
– You probably can’t stop all Russian progress, but you can slow down and delay it properly. And above all, it creates a concern that “now it could hit here too”, says Norberg.