There are several factors that affect nuclear weapons issues worldwide. Total Defense’s research institute, FOI, works with these on a daily basis – and since just over 2.5 years ago more intensively than in a very long time.
IN The FOI Podcast Reported researchers Martin Goliath and Karl Sörenson discuss the nuclear weapons issue from a security policy and a technical perspective.
It is mainly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that has changed the situation in a big way.
– A lot has been put on the line. Among other things, Russia has self-suspended from the arms control agreement called New Start, they have possibly deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus, they have advanced nuclear weapons exercises and they have repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons, says Karl Sörenson in the podcast.
– The Russian way of thinking about nuclear weapons is changing and they have started to advance their positions, he continues.
China’s rearmament
Parallel to the Russian threat is the Chinese one. China has, relative to Russia and the United States, had a much smaller nuclear arsenal. This is changing. China currently has around 500 weapons and there are reports that it will go up to 1,000 or 1,500. The rearmament is not only worrying in itself, but can also lead to a domino effect among the world’s nuclear weapons countries.
– Russia and the United States have had a nuclear weapon strategy called counter force, where the nuclear weapons countries target each other’s United States. If China is on the rise, and ends up on par with the US, then the US must start thinking about whether it should have an arsenal that can handle a counter force strategy both against Russia and against China, says Söreson.
– And if China builds up its arsenal, then it will have consequences for how India thinks about its arsenal. And if India builds up its arsenal, then you can figure out for yourself what will happen to Pakistan’s. For that, we have North Korea.
“A lot of things are moving”
In other words, there is a lot happening at the same time. What that can lead to, however, remains to be seen.
– It’s a bit like feeling the first tremors of a landslide. You don’t know how big and dangerous and bad it will be, it might not be that bad, but it can also be very boring. That’s a bit where we stand right now. There are a lot of things moving and it is difficult to get an overview of what is actually going on.
Russia no longer wants to discuss nuclear disarmament with the US and China has never sat down at the negotiating table. At the same time, it can cause the United States to start reviewing its own strategy and develop it.
They are moving from a global disarmament to reduce the risk of nuclear war, to again investing in pure deterrence. If someone attacks you, an equivalent – or significantly worse – response awaits, the researchers say.
Should we be worried?
In addition to the threat of the use of nuclear weapons, the risks of a mistake being made in the production and testing of the same increase at the same time.
At the same time, an ordinary Swede should not go around worrying, as a nuclear attack is not seen as imminent – but an ordinary citizen should still be ready for it to happen.
– There is no reason to go around and be worried all the time, but it is very good to think through where we stand right now and I think it is wise for MSB to also go through routines in what Sweden can do and how as an individual citizen can think about this, says Karl Sörenson.
On Monday, the Norwegian Agency for Community Protection and Preparedness will send out a new version of the brochure “If the crisis or the war comes” to all households.