After a disappointing COP28, a COP29 for nothing? How could it be otherwise in such a fractured world and with an organizing country in which oil and gas represent about half of the economy and more than 90% of exports? The first risk concerns the semantics used in the final text, which will be delivered at the end of November.
The COP28 in Dubai has already shown us to what extent the choice of words can empty a compromise of its substance by opting for example for a “movement” from fossil fuels instead of a pure and simple “exit” with a timetable. . It is a safe bet that Baku will use the same stratagem, the only way for it to carry out its plans without incident (+14% investment in hydrocarbons by 2035).
The second risk concerns the inability of participating countries to agree on funding to help the nations most vulnerable to climate change (the heart of this year’s negotiations). It took almost ten years to reach, in 2022, the threshold of 100 billion dollars in international aid. However, at least ten times more would be needed today to meet needs.
Who will pay? In what form? There are too many disagreements to consider a satisfactory compromise. Additional difficulty, Donald Trump returns to power. If the United States leaves the Paris agreements again, this will undoubtedly encourage large CO2 emitters – such as China – to make less effort. Bad weather for the climate. Looking forward to COP30.