Economy, politics, social issues and even immigration: the unique relationship between Canada and the United States will once again depend on the unpredictable Donald Trump. The latter’s campaign promises, if implemented, will have direct consequences on Canadians.
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“ Tie on your hats [bonnets en québécois] », wrote this Wednesday, November 6, the Quebec newspaper The Duty… “ If Donald Trump is elected, buckle up “, Kelly Craft warned at the beginning of the monththe former American ambassador to Canada… The message is clear: the return of Donald Trump to power will reshuffle the cards of the American-Canadian relationship. A unique relationship in the world, due to the history of the two countries, their economic cooperation, or even their common border, which extends over nearly 9,000 km.
The Canadian economy on hold
The return of Donald Trump in the White House raises fears for the main source of Canadian wealth: its trade, which represents two-thirds of the country’s GDP. The two countries have the largest bilateral trading relationship in the world, and the United States is the country’s largest trading partner. Canadarepresenting 75% of the country’s exports.
“ We are entering into a process of perpetual negotiations on the commercial and economic level with the United States, with all the unpredictable measures that may come. With the implementation of significant customs tariffs, with commercial disputes, with the renegotiation of CUSMA », summarized Richard Ouellet, full professor of international economic law at Laval University in Quebec, on Radio Canada.
Also readMexico: concerns and questions after the election of Donald Trump in the United States
CUSMA is the result of the renegotiation of the trade agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada, desired by Donald Trump in 2018. Still crowned by his first victory in the 2015 elections, Justin Trudeau, Canadian Prime Minister, was able to unite his country’s political class to prevent this renegotiation from putting Canada too much at a disadvantage. During this year’s campaign, Donald Trump assured that he wanted to negotiate it again to the advantage of the Americans, and Justin Trudeau, after two terms, is no longer in a strong position to face him.
Another major issue: customs duties. Nearly 80% of Canadian manufacturing exports are made to the United States. Donald Trump increased taxes on iron imports and Canadian aluminum in 2018, then lowered them in 2019, before increasing them again in 2020. If this policy had especially affected Americanswho had paid more for their metals without this increasing the relocation of these industries in the country, Trump’s unpredictability could cool investments in the sector.
Also proof of the influence of policies on both sides of the border: if the United States again lowers corporate taxes from 21% to 15%, the Canadian government could be forced to reduce it too. , or it would risk reducing the competitiveness of its own companies.
Danger or opportunity for Trudeau?
The election of Donald Trump will also, inevitably, influence the domestic policy of his neighbor. After nine years in power, the liberal bloc is struggling to defend its record and Justin Trudeau is falling behind in opinion polls, as the federal elections of October 2025 draw closer. It is now the Conservative Party of Pierre Poilièvre which benefits.
Also readIn Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a mutiny in his ranks
However, the coming to power of Donald Trump on the American side could reinforce this trend, while Pierre Poilievre’s style is often compared to that of the elected American president. Moreover, a third of Canadians surveyed by the Angus Reid Institute say he would be in a good position to negotiate with Trump, compared to a quarter for Justin Trudeau.
However, the conservative leader is far from unanimous among Quebecers. His vindictive phrasing, his media slip-ups, as well as his unfortunate tendency to comment on Quebec affairs, could, in the long term, play tricks on him.
The months to come will therefore be decisive for the current Prime Minister: if he succeeds in preserving the interests of Canadians while maintaining a cordial relationship with his tempestuous neighbor, he could win precious points with voters, by embodying the bulwark against Donald Trump.
Preserve the rights of women and minorities
“ Canada and the United States share the same desire to recognize and combat systemic racism, unconscious bias, gender discrimination, barriers faced by people with disabilities and all other forms of discrimination and exclusion », Writes the Government of Canada on the official page detailing its relationship between the country and the United States.
With the return of a president who has increased attacks against an alleged conspiracy “ woke ”, questioning the rights of women and racialized people, and multiplying the racist insults against different communitiesthis “same will” praised by the Canadian government will clearly be undermined. While the province of Alberta recently legislated negatively on the rights of LGBT+ peoplethe example of Donald Trump could give wings to the most conservative policies on human rights in Canada.
Immigration to Canada also risks suffering from the arrival of Donald Trump. The episode of the Roxham Road, this alternative route taken by migrants thanks to an administrative loophole between the two countries, is still present in people’s minds. If by chance the Republicans implement their promises to expel millions of people in administrative irregularity from the United States, they could flee to Canada, leading to a new migration crisis.
Also readCanada: Chemin Roxham, the administrative anomaly at the origin of the migration crisis in Quebec