Russian intelligence does not currently know where and how arms shipments from the West are flowing into Ukraine, the former intelligence colonel estimates. According to him, US intelligence is of great importance to Ukraine.
Russia has failed to stop Western aid to Ukraine.
As late as mid-March, Russia threatened to attack Western arms deliveries.
“We have warned the United States that the systematic supply of weapons to Ukraine from a number of countries is not only dangerous, but will make these escorts targets,” said Deputy Secretary of State Sergei Ryabkov On Russian state television, according to the news agency AP.
To date, there has been no information that Russia has succeeded in its threat, says a teacher of intelligence analysis at the University of Jyväskylä. Martti J. Kari Ylelle in a phone interview.
Kari is the former Deputy Chief of Military Intelligence of the General Staff. Today, he teaches at the University of Jyväskylä in the Master’s program in Security and Strategic Analysis.
Earlier this week, the Russians announced the destruction of four S-300 anti-aircraft missile launchers given to Ukraine by an unspecified European country.
Slovakia, a member of NATO, donated such a system last week, but denied it was destroyed, according to the news agency AP.
Secret routes in the darkness of the night
Weapons aid travels under secret routes for Ukrainians for security reasons. Kari estimates that the weapons and supplies will be delivered in small batches and at night.
He estimates that the transportation lines have worked pretty well.
– In the past, the biggest fear was that Belarus would cut service lines from Poland and Slovakia to western Ukraine.
According to Kari, this has not happened.
One possible transport route, according to Kari, is through Zhytomyr, west of Kiev. Russia fired missiles at the city in late March, among other places.
In Russia, there is no air domination and reconnaissance
Experts have provided numerous explanations as to why Russia has failed to block shipments.
According to the news agency AP, one probable reason is that Russia has not achieved air dominance in Ukraine. According to Kari, this is strange because the Russians have much more equipment than the Ukrainians.
Some believe that the root causes of the problem are to be found in the home country.
“The short answer to the question is that they are an epic incompetent army that is poorly commanded right from the top,” says a former NATO military commander. James Stavridis To the AP
According to Kari, one of the reasons is the Russians’ scouting about Ukrainian movements. He estimates that the Russians do not currently know exactly where and how Western aid shipments are going.
“Intelligence plays a huge role in modern warfare”
– Intelligence plays a huge role in modern warfare. Without inquiry with his fists in the dark, says Colonel Evp Kari.
Kari estimates that the United States collects intelligence using, among other things, reconnaissance satellites and signal reconnaissance flights.
This is how many other countries work. According to Kari, signal intelligence machines in Sweden, for example, have been collecting data in Poland. The United States has also used unmanned reconnaissance aircraft around Crimea, for example, Kari says.
Kari points out that reconnaissance satellites, for example, have been very accurate for a long time. What is new is that well-developed technology can also be found in commercial players such as the US company Maxar.
The images on the commercial side are so accurate that until ten years ago, similar technology was kept secret.
Kari does not believe that the images of the intelligence satellites will be distributed as such, but that the interpretations made from them will be combined with the images of the commercial operator.
In particular, the progress of the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is being monitored.
According to Kari, the United States has a pretty good picture of the activities and grouping of the Russian armed forces. The US is likely to share this information with the Ukrainians.
Kari estimates that the Russians will not be able to hide their troops from satellite imagery as the weather becomes brighter and brighter with the spring.
According to Kari, the Russians will have to use traditional technology, such as field radios, to lead the troops, because the 3G and 4G masts have been violated and the latest command technology will not work. These are easy to inquire about.
– Ukraine has a signal intelligence team that is chasing top Russian leaders in radio traffic.
Destructive missiles also raise morale
Weapons have been delivered to the Ukrainians, which Kari says are of great benefit on the battlefields.
Ukrainians have destroyed Russian wagon fleet with Bayraktar planes and Javelin anti-tank missiles.
– Some Russian machines have been dropped on the Stingers, Kari says.
A functioning weapon is also important for the morale of Ukrainian soldiers.
– They have a weapon on the battlefields that really works against the enemy, it is also important for the soldier.
Kari compares the situation to World War II, when Finland received help from Germany.
– In 1944, armored fists and horrors came to Tali-Ihantala. We saw that the guns really work against the opponent, it has psychological significance.