It’s a nightmare starting again. The only difference compared to 2016 is that this time Europeans are not really surprised by Donald Trump’s victory. European institutions and capitals have even anticipated it for months. “No state of shock, no waking up with a hangover,” we assure you in Brussels. “This is not our first rodeo,” summarizes a high-ranking diplomat. The scale and speed of the Republican candidate’s triumph leave no choice. We’ll have to deal with it. “From 10 a.m. this morning, everyone was focused on the future. With five million votes in advance, he has a clear mandate, we are not going to elaborate,” says a participant in the meeting of ambassadors from the 27 countries of the European Union which was held this Wednesday, November 6.
The main leaders of the Union therefore very quickly lined up congratulatory messages on the social network X. “Ready to work together with your convictions and mine”, writes Emmanuel Macronone of the first to draw. “Germany and the United States have been working together for a long time. We will continue for the well-being of our citizens,” assures German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “We are linked by a true partnership between our peoples,” adds the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. “Let us work for a strong transatlantic agenda!” Formulas that sound like wishful thinking, as the privileged link between the United States and Europe now seems fragile. “It’s an expression of responsibility on their part,” deciphers a diplomat. There is no question of already giving the future tenant of the White House pretexts to attack Europe.
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© / The Express
“The winds of history are blowing like never before”
Because the 27 have few illusions about the difficult months ahead. For six months, a small group of senior officials from the Commission and the European diplomatic service have been working on the possible repercussions of a second term for Donald Trump. “With each new American president, the relationship changes. This time, the change will be more radical, but we have prepared rather well,” a highly placed European source wants to believe.
Ukraine, Middle East, trade… upheavals could come in the first weeks of the future president’s mandate. Donald Trump boasted that he could make peace in Ukraine in 24 hours. Does he intend to cut financial aid to kyiv as soon as he comes to power or play mediator to negotiate with Moscow? The Europeans are unaware of his precise intentions. They know they will have to do more, but they have not yet put themselves in battle position to cope if Washington defaults. “Europe must urgently take more responsibility for its security. The winds of history are blowing stronger than ever,” warns Radek Sikorski, the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, on the front line against Russia.
On the commercial front, the situation could quickly deteriorate, according to experts’ assessment. “The scenario of customs taxes of 10 or 20% seems very credible to us,” indicates a person at the heart of the decisions. But how quickly will the future administration impose them? Which sectors will be hit in Europe? Will Chinese products flood the market, due to a lack of outlets on American soil? Difficult to have a precise vision, we will probably have to wait until after January and the inauguration of the new president.
Stay disciplined
All these subjects will in any case be on the table of the 27 on Thursday and Friday in Budapest, where they will gather for an informal summit. After a first day dedicated to the European Political Community with leaders from across the continent, EU heads of state and government will have dinner together to discuss the future of the transatlantic relationship. Brussels would like a show of unity. Not easy, when the host of the meeting will be Viktor Orban, one of the few to be publicly enthusiastic about the return of Donald Trump. “A victory that the world really needs!”, the Hungarian Prime Minister rejoiced at dawn this Wednesday. “Will we be able to remain disciplined and speak with one voice in the coming months?” asks a highly placed source anxiously.
Many questions and uncertainties persist about the EU’s capacity to react to the new situation in Washington, while France and Germany are both in situations of unprecedented political weakness which hamper their role as “engine European”. “It is now up to European leaders to make proactive choices. They are facing history,” dramatizes a diplomat. The most optimistic want to believe that the return of Donald Trump could produce the effect of an electric shock. It’s hard to believe it.
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